Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$503.90
→
Intrinsic$668.55
+33%
$465.92$668.55$1,053.27
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UTHR could have 33% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $504, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $466 → Bull $1053. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $808 | $872 | $941 | $1015 |
| 10% | $577 | $621 | $669 | $719 |
| 12% | $450 | $483 | $518 | $555 |
| 14% | $369 | $395 | $422 | $452 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1053) offers 109% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 25% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($466) implies 8% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.25B
Year 2$1.50B
Year 3$1.80B
Year 4$2.16B
Year 5$2.59B
Terminal$38.10B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.04BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.