MODEL VERDICT
United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $503.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $473.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $473.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $473.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $483.23 | Below threshold | -2.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $762.57 | +51.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $742.67 | +47.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $607.47 | +20.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $579.69 | +15.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $803.69 | +59.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $561.25 | +11.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $513.57 | +1.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $672.17 | +33.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $677.51 | +34.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $739.59 | +46.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $630.27 | +25.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $649.95 | +29.0% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $420 | $480 | $540 | $600 | $660 |
| Conservative (13%) | $439 | $502 | $564 | $627 | $690 |
| Base Case (19.3%) | $465 | $532 | $598 | $665 | $731 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $491 | $562 | $632 | $702 | $772 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.01 | 15.90 | 11.10 | 21.48 | 3.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.66 | 12.01 | 7.81 | 14.74 | 2.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.22 | 11.88 | 8.42 | 16.71 | 2.90 |
| P/FCF | 17.39 | 18.08 | 9.72 | 22.43 | 4.88 |
| P/FFO | 14.87 | 14.97 | 10.53 | 19.44 | 3.42 |
| P/TBV | 2.42 | 2.61 | 1.47 | 3.34 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 19.32 | 18.92 | 13.39 | 25.94 | 5.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.36 | 2.58 | 1.39 | 3.29 | 0.65 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.46 | 5.95 | 2.66 | 7.33 | 1.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UTHR's fair value at $649.95 vs the current price of $503.90, implying +29.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $649.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $489.47 (P10) to $759.98 (P90), with a median of $621.84.
UTHR's current P/E of 18.1x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -17.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
30 analysts cover UTHR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $563.17 (range: $447.00 — $645.00), implying +11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UTHR trades at the 4170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UTHR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (31.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3390.0% to approximately $333. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.