MODEL VERDICT
V2X, Inc. (VVX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $90.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $84.94 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $83.13 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $73.97 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $69.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $71.44 | -21.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $76.38 | -15.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $37.45 | -58.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $62.34 | -31.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $64.92 | -28.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $56.20 | -38.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $178.41 | +96.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $158.74 | +74.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $34.10 | -62.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $56.39 | -37.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.21 | -29.3% | 100% | 78 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $77 | $85 | $92 | $100 | $107 |
| Conservative (5%) | $80 | $87 | $95 | $103 | $111 |
| Base Case (-4.8%) | $72 | $79 | $86 | $93 | $100 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $71 | $78 | $85 | $92 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.43 | 17.92 | 11.86 | 44.29 | 12.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.99 | 16.31 | 10.55 | 37.37 | 9.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.29 | 10.66 | 8.27 | 17.60 | 3.44 |
| P/FCF | 15.51 | 10.21 | 6.31 | 52.19 | 16.24 |
| P/FFO | 12.84 | 12.96 | 8.70 | 17.95 | 3.61 |
| P/AFFO | 16.71 | 14.40 | 9.73 | 25.31 | 6.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.55 | 0.87 | 2.30 | 0.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VVX's fair value at $64.21 vs the current price of $90.81, implying -29.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.84 (P10) to $83.65 (P90), with a median of $72.99.
VVX's current P/E of 37.1x compares to the industry median of 15.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +142.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.4x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover VVX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $78.60 (range: $65.00 — $94.00), implying -13.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 1.9% is 1.2 percentage points above the 5-year average (3.2%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$93. (2) Multiple compression: VVX trades at the 4000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VVX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 210.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.