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AGNC vs EARN
Revenue, margins, valuation, and 5-year total return — side by side.
Asset Management
AGNC vs EARN — Key Financials
Market cap, revenue, margins, and valuation side-by-side.
| Company Snapshot | ||
|---|---|---|
| Industry | REIT - Mortgage | Asset Management |
| Market Cap | $9.62B | $180M |
| Revenue (TTM) | $3.46B | $51M |
| Net Income (TTM) | $838M | $-5M |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | 31.3% |
| Operating Margin | 107.1% | 14.0% |
| Forward P/E | 6.9x | 4.5x |
| Total Debt | $64M | $563M |
| Cash & Equiv. | $505M | $32M |
AGNC vs EARN — Long-Term Stock Performance
Price return indexed to 100 at period start. Dividends excluded.
| Stock | May 20 | May 26 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC Investment Cor… (AGNC) | 100 | 82.8 | -17.2% |
| Ellington Credit Co… (EARN) | 100 | 50.5 | -49.5% |
Price return only. Dividends and distributions are not included.
Quick Verdict: AGNC vs EARN
Each card shows where this stock fits in a portfolio — not just who wins on paper.
AGNC carries the broadest edge in this set and is the clearest fit for growth exposure and long-term compounding.
- Rev growth 384.7%, EPS growth 17.6%, 3Y rev CAGR 26.4%
- 49.5% 10Y total return vs EARN's 34.9%
- 384.7% FFO/revenue growth vs EARN's -8.4%
EARN is the clearest fit if your priority is income & stability and sleep-well-at-night.
- Dividend streak 0 yrs, beta 0.63, yield 17.1%
- Lower volatility, beta 0.63, current ratio 0.13x
- Beta 0.63, yield 17.1%, current ratio 0.13x
See the full category breakdown
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | 384.7% FFO/revenue growth vs EARN's -8.4% | |
| Value | Lower P/E (4.5x vs 6.9x) | |
| Quality / Margins | 24.2% margin vs EARN's 13.0% | |
| Stability / Safety | Beta 0.63 vs AGNC's 0.74 | |
| Dividends | 17.1% yield, vs AGNC's 14.7% | |
| Momentum (1Y) | +38.8% vs EARN's +8.3% | |
| Efficiency (ROA) | 0.8% ROA vs EARN's -0.6%, ROIC 34.0% vs 0.7% |
AGNC vs EARN — Financial Metrics
Side-by-side numbers across 2 stocks — who leads on profitability, valuation, growth, and risk.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
AGNC leads this category, winning 4 of 5 comparable metrics.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
AGNC is the larger business by revenue, generating $3.5B annually — 68.3x EARN's $51M. AGNC is the more profitable business, keeping 24.2% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to EARN's 13.0%.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $3.5B | $51M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $3.7B | -$5M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $838M | -$5M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $604M | $20M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +100.0% | +31.3% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +107.1% | +14.0% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +24.2% | +13.0% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +17.5% | +18.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +2.5% | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +84.6% | -2.1% |
Valuation Metrics
Evenly matched — AGNC and EARN each lead in 3 of 6 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
At 11.5x trailing earnings, AGNC trades at a 42% valuation discount to EARN's 19.9x P/E. On an enterprise value basis, AGNC's 2.4x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than EARN's 100.2x.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $9.6B | $180M |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $9.2B | $711M |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 11.53x | 19.92x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 6.87x | 4.54x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 2.42x | 100.15x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.97x | 3.54x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 0.86x | 0.67x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 111.86x | 19.70x |
Profitability & Efficiency
AGNC leads this category, winning 8 of 9 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
AGNC delivers a 7.3% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $7 in annual profit, vs $-3 for EARN. AGNC carries lower financial leverage with a 0.01x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to EARN's 2.91x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), EARN scores 8/9 vs AGNC's 5/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +7.3% | -2.8% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +0.8% | -0.6% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +34.0% | +0.7% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +4.9% | +3.7% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 5 | 8 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.01x | 2.91x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$441M | $531M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $505M | $32M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $64M | $563M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 1.32x | -0.16x |
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
AGNC leads this category, winning 6 of 6 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
A $10,000 investment in AGNC five years ago would be worth $9,884 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $8,185 for EARN. Over the past 12 months, AGNC leads with a +38.8% total return vs EARN's +8.3%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors AGNC at 16.7% vs EARN's 3.4% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +2.5% | -3.8% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +38.8% | +8.3% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +58.8% | +10.5% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -1.2% | -18.2% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +49.5% | +34.9% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +16.7% | +3.4% |
Risk & Volatility
Evenly matched — AGNC and EARN each lead in 1 of 2 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
EARN is the less volatile stock with a 0.63 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than AGNC's 0.74 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. AGNC currently trades 87.9% from its 52-week high vs EARN's 78.6% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.74x | 0.63x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $12.19 | $6.08 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $8.61 | $4.27 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +87.9% | +78.6% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 47.9 | 53.9 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 18.7M | 493K |
Analyst Outlook
EARN leads this category, winning 1 of 1 comparable metric.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates AGNC as "Hold" and EARN as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 25.5% upside for EARN (target: $6) vs 3.8% for AGNC (target: $11). For income investors, EARN offers the higher dividend yield at 17.11% vs AGNC's 14.73%.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $11.13 | $6.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 35 | 7 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +14.7% | +17.1% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $1.58 | $0.82 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AGNC leads in 3 of 6 categories (Income & Cash Flow, Profitability & Efficiency). EARN leads in 1 (Analyst Outlook). 2 tied.
AGNC vs EARN: Frequently Asked Questions
10 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is AGNC or EARN a better buy right now?
For growth investors, AGNC Investment Corp.
(AGNC) is the stronger pick with 384. 7% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -8. 4% for Ellington Credit Company (EARN). AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) offers the better valuation at 11. 5x trailing P/E (6. 9x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) a "Hold" — based on 35 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — AGNC or EARN?
On trailing P/E, AGNC Investment Corp.
(AGNC) is the cheapest at 11. 5x versus Ellington Credit Company at 19. 9x. On forward P/E, Ellington Credit Company is actually cheaper at 4. 5x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — AGNC or EARN?
Over the past 5 years, AGNC Investment Corp.
(AGNC) delivered a total return of -1. 2%, compared to -18. 2% for Ellington Credit Company (EARN). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: AGNC returned +49. 5% versus EARN's +34. 9%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — AGNC or EARN?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Ellington Credit Company (EARN) is the lower-risk stock at 0.
63β versus AGNC Investment Corp. 's 0. 74β — meaning AGNC is approximately 17% more volatile than EARN relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 1% versus 3% for Ellington Credit Company — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which is growing faster — AGNC or EARN?
By revenue growth (latest reported year), AGNC Investment Corp.
(AGNC) is pulling ahead at 384. 7% versus -8. 4% for Ellington Credit Company (EARN). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: AGNC Investment Corp. grew EPS 1760% year-over-year, compared to -22. 6% for Ellington Credit Company. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.
06Which has better profit margins — AGNC or EARN?
AGNC Investment Corp.
(AGNC) is the more profitable company, earning 17. 7% net margin versus 13. 0% for Ellington Credit Company — meaning it keeps 17. 7% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: AGNC leads at 79. 6% versus 14. 0% for EARN. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — AGNC leads at 100. 0%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
07Is AGNC or EARN more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) trades at 4.
5x forward P/E versus 6. 9x for AGNC Investment Corp. — 2. 3x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for EARN: 25. 5% to $6. 00.
08Which pays a better dividend — AGNC or EARN?
All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.
Ellington Credit Company (EARN) offers the highest yield at 17. 1%, versus 14. 7% for AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC).
09Is AGNC or EARN better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Ellington Credit Company (EARN) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.
63), 17. 1% yield). Both have compounded well over 10 years (EARN: +34. 9%, AGNC: +49. 5%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
10What are the main differences between AGNC and EARN?
These companies operate in different sectors (AGNC (Real Estate) and EARN (Financial Services)), which means they face different economic cycles, regulatory environments, and macro sensitivities — making direct comparison nuanced.
In terms of investment character: AGNC is a small-cap high-growth stock; EARN is a small-cap income-oriented stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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