ALRS vs ADP vs PAYX vs NBTB

For growth investors, NBT Bancorp Inc.

(NBTB) is the stronger pick with 10. 4% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -3. 1% for Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS). NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) offers the better valuation at 14. 5x trailing P/E (11. 5x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) a "Hold" — based on 5 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.

On trailing P/E, NBT Bancorp Inc.

(NBTB) is the cheapest at 14. 5x versus Alerus Financial Corporation at 44. 6x. On forward P/E, Alerus Financial Corporation is actually cheaper at 10. 3x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: NBT Bancorp Inc. wins at 1. 64x versus Paychex, Inc. 's 2. 14x — a reasonable growth-adjusted valuation.

Over the past 5 years, NBT Bancorp Inc.

(NBTB) delivered a total return of +44. 4%, compared to +4. 7% for Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: ADP returned +207. 7% versus ALRS's +106. 8%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.

By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Paychex, Inc.

(PAYX) is the lower-risk stock at 0. 23β versus Alerus Financial Corporation's 0. 79β — meaning ALRS is approximately 248% more volatile than PAYX relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 17% versus 146% for Automatic Data Processing, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.

By revenue growth (latest reported year), NBT Bancorp Inc.

(NBTB) is pulling ahead at 10. 4% versus -3. 1% for Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: NBT Bancorp Inc. grew EPS 12. 5% year-over-year, compared to -18. 1% for Alerus Financial Corporation. Over a 3-year CAGR, ADP leads at 7. 6% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.

Paychex, Inc.

(PAYX) is the more profitable company, earning 29. 7% net margin versus 5. 3% for Alerus Financial Corporation — meaning it keeps 29. 7% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: PAYX leads at 39. 6% versus 6. 9% for ALRS. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — PAYX leads at 72. 4%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.

The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.

By this metric, NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 1. 64x versus Paychex, Inc. 's 2. 14x. Both stocks trade at elevated growth-adjusted valuations, so expected growth needs to materialise. On forward earnings alone, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) trades at 10. 3x forward P/E versus 20. 4x for Automatic Data Processing, Inc. — 10. 1x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for PAYX: 8. 1% to $108. 80.

All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) offers the highest yield at 4. 0%, versus 2. 6% for Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP).

For long-horizon retirement investors, Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

(ADP) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0. 25), 2. 6% yield, +207. 7% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (ADP: +207. 7%, ALRS: +106. 8%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.

These companies operate in different sectors (ALRS (Financial Services) and ADP (Industrials) and PAYX (Industrials) and NBTB (Financial Services)), which means they face different economic cycles, regulatory environments, and macro sensitivities — making direct comparison nuanced.

In terms of investment character: ALRS is a small-cap quality compounder stock; ADP is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; PAYX is a mid-cap income-oriented stock; NBTB is a small-cap deep-value stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.