GPRE
Green Plains Inc.
Chemicals - Specialty
Market Cap$1.19B
5Y Perf.+98.5%
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Stock Comparison
GPRE vs ADM
Revenue, margins, valuation, and 5-year total return — side by side.
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Agricultural Farm Products
Market Cap$37.60B
5Y Perf.+98.5%
GPRE vs ADM — Key Financials
Market cap, revenue, margins, and valuation side-by-side.
| Company Snapshot | GPRE | ADM |
|---|---|---|
| Industry | Chemicals - Specialty | Agricultural Farm Products |
| Market Cap | $1.19B | $37.60B |
| Revenue (TTM) | $2.09B | $80.61B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $-121M | $1.08B |
| Gross Margin | 1.8% | 5.8% |
| Operating Margin | -4.0% | 1.5% |
| Forward P/E | 48.1x | 18.7x |
| Total Debt | $508M | $8.41B |
| Cash & Equiv. | $230M | $1.01B |
GPRE vs ADM — Long-Term Stock Performance
Price return indexed to 100 at period start. Dividends excluded.
GPRE
ADM
| Stock | May 20 | May 26 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) | 100 | 198.5 | +98.5% |
| Archer-Daniels-Midl… (ADM) | 100 | 198.5 | +98.5% |
Price return only. Dividends and distributions are not included.
Quick Verdict: GPRE vs ADM
Each card shows where this stock fits in a portfolio — not just who wins on paper.
Bottom line: ADM leads in 6 of 7 categories, making it the strongest pick for growth and revenue expansion and valuation and capital efficiency. Green Plains Inc. is the stronger pick specifically for recent price momentum and sentiment. This set spans 2 sectors — these stocks serve different portfolio roles, not just different price points.
GPRE
Green Plains Inc.
The Momentum Pick
GPRE is the clearest fit if your priority is momentum.
- +363.7% vs ADM's +65.7%
Best for: momentum
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
The Income Pick
ADM carries the broadest edge in this set and is the clearest fit for income & stability and growth exposure.
- Dividend streak 31 yrs, beta 0.12, yield 2.6%
- Rev growth -6.2%, EPS growth -38.9%, 3Y rev CAGR -7.5%
- 145.6% 10Y total return vs GPRE's 17.1%
Best for: income & stability and growth exposure
See the full category breakdown
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | ADM | -6.2% revenue growth vs GPRE's -14.9% |
| Value | ADM | Lower P/E (18.7x vs 48.1x) |
| Quality / Margins | ADM | 1.3% margin vs GPRE's -5.8% |
| Stability / Safety | ADM | Beta 0.12 vs GPRE's 1.22, lower leverage |
| Dividends | ADM | 2.6% yield; 31-year raise streak; the other pay no meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | GPRE | +363.7% vs ADM's +65.7% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | ADM | 2.8% ROA vs GPRE's -7.7%, ROIC 3.3% vs -5.3% |
GPRE vs ADM — Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
FY 2024
FY 2025
GPRE vs ADM — Financial Metrics
Side-by-side numbers across 2 stocks — who leads on profitability, valuation, growth, and risk.
BEST OVERALLADMLAGGINGGPRE
GPREGreen Plains Inc.
0leads
ADMArcher-Daniels-Midlan…
6leads
6 Total Categories
CATEGORYLEADERvs GPREMETRICS WON
Income & Cash FlowRevenue, margins, and cash flow strength
ADM5/6
Valuation MetricsMultiples, price ratios, and targets
ADM4/6
Profitability & EfficiencyROE, ROIC, leverage, and quality scores
ADM7/9
Total Returns1Y, 3Y, 5Y total returns with dividends
ADM4/6
Risk & VolatilityBeta, volatility, and downside exposure
ADM2/2
Analyst OutlookRatings, price targets, and dividends
ADM1/1
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
ADM leads this category, winning 5 of 6 comparable metrics.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
ADM is the larger business by revenue, generating $80.6B annually — 38.5x GPRE's $2.1B. ADM is the more profitable business, keeping 1.3% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to GPRE's -5.8%. On growth, ADM holds the edge at +1.6% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | GPREGreen Plains Inc. | ADMArcher-Daniels-Mi… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $2.1B | $80.6B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $14M | $3.0B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | -$121M | $1.1B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $74M | $4.8B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +1.8% | +5.8% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | -4.0% | +1.5% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | -5.8% | +1.3% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +3.5% | +6.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -26.6% | +1.6% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +119.8% | +1.6% |
ADM leads this category, winning 5 of 6 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
ADM leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
On an enterprise value basis, ADM's 17.3x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than GPRE's 103.0x.
| Metric | GPREGreen Plains Inc. | ADMArcher-Daniels-Mi… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.2B | $37.6B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $1.5B | $45.0B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | -9.43x | 34.99x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 48.06x | 18.74x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 102.96x | 17.27x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 0.57x | 0.47x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 1.48x | 1.64x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 16.09x | 8.94x |
ADM leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
ADM leads this category, winning 7 of 9 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
ADM delivers a 4.7% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $5 in annual profit, vs $-16 for GPRE. ADM carries lower financial leverage with a 0.37x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to GPRE's 0.66x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), ADM scores 6/9 vs GPRE's 4/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | GPREGreen Plains Inc. | ADMArcher-Daniels-Mi… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | -15.7% | +4.7% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | -7.7% | +2.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | -5.3% | +3.3% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | -6.2% | +4.2% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 4 | 6 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.66x | 0.37x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $278M | $7.4B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $230M | $1.0B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $508M | $8.4B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | -0.88x | 3.03x |
ADM leads this category, winning 7 of 9 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
ADM leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
A $10,000 investment in ADM five years ago would be worth $13,059 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $5,303 for GPRE. Over the past 12 months, GPRE leads with a +363.7% total return vs ADM's +65.7%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors ADM at 3.6% vs GPRE's -18.2% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | GPREGreen Plains Inc. | ADMArcher-Daniels-Mi… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +65.1% | +33.0% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +363.7% | +65.7% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -45.2% | +11.3% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -47.0% | +30.6% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +17.1% | +145.6% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -18.2% | +3.6% |
ADM leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
ADM leads this category, winning 2 of 2 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
ADM is the less volatile stock with a 0.12 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than GPRE's 1.22 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. ADM currently trades 95.4% from its 52-week high vs GPRE's 89.6% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | GPREGreen Plains Inc. | ADMArcher-Daniels-Mi… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.22x | 0.12x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $18.94 | $81.75 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $3.39 | $46.81 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +89.6% | +95.4% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 68.5 | 73.4 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 1.4M | 3.7M |
ADM leads this category, winning 2 of 2 comparable metrics.
Analyst Outlook
ADM leads this category, winning 1 of 1 comparable metric.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates GPRE as "Buy" and ADM as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply -18.7% upside for GPRE (target: $14) vs -23.1% for ADM (target: $60). ADM is the only dividend payer here at 2.61% yield — a key consideration for income-focused portfolios.
| Metric | GPREGreen Plains Inc. | ADMArcher-Daniels-Mi… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $13.80 | $60.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 20 | 36 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | +2.6% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 0 | 31 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | $2.04 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +2.5% | 0.0% |
ADM leads this category, winning 1 of 1 comparable metric.
Key Takeaway
ADM leads in 6 of 6 categories — strongest in Income & Cash Flow and Valuation Metrics.
Best OverallArcher-Daniels-Midland Comp… (ADM)Leads 6 of 6 categories
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GPRE vs ADM: Frequently Asked Questions
10 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is GPRE or ADM a better buy right now?
For growth investors, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is the stronger pick with -6.
2% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -14. 9% for Green Plains Inc. (GPRE). Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) offers the better valuation at 35. 0x trailing P/E (18. 7x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) a "Buy" — based on 20 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — GPRE or ADM?
On forward P/E, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is actually cheaper at 18.
7x.
03Which is the better long-term investment — GPRE or ADM?
Over the past 5 years, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) delivered a total return of +30.
6%, compared to -47. 0% for Green Plains Inc. (GPRE). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: ADM returned +145. 6% versus GPRE's +17. 1%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — GPRE or ADM?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is the lower-risk stock at 0.
12β versus Green Plains Inc. 's 1. 22β — meaning GPRE is approximately 957% more volatile than ADM relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 37% versus 66% for Green Plains Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which is growing faster — GPRE or ADM?
By revenue growth (latest reported year), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is pulling ahead at -6.
2% versus -14. 9% for Green Plains Inc. (GPRE). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: Archer-Daniels-Midland Company grew EPS -38. 9% year-over-year, compared to -39. 5% for Green Plains Inc.. Over a 3-year CAGR, ADM leads at -7. 5% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.
06Which has better profit margins — GPRE or ADM?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is the more profitable company, earning 1.
3% net margin versus -5. 8% for Green Plains Inc. — meaning it keeps 1. 3% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: ADM leads at 1. 8% versus -4. 0% for GPRE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — ADM leads at 6. 3%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
07Is GPRE or ADM more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trades at 18.
7x forward P/E versus 48. 1x for Green Plains Inc. — 29. 3x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for GPRE: -18. 7% to $13. 80.
08Which pays a better dividend — GPRE or ADM?
In this comparison, ADM (2.
6% yield) pays a dividend. GPRE does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
09Is GPRE or ADM better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.
12), 2. 6% yield, +145. 6% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (ADM: +145. 6%, GPRE: +17. 1%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
10What are the main differences between GPRE and ADM?
These companies operate in different sectors (GPRE (Basic Materials) and ADM (Consumer Defensive)), which means they face different economic cycles, regulatory environments, and macro sensitivities — making direct comparison nuanced.
ADM pays a dividend while GPRE does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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