Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare ON24, Inc. (ONTF) vs Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | SHOP | 30.1% revenue growth vs ONTF's -5.9% |
| Value | ONTF | Lower P/E (60.5x vs 65.9x) |
| Quality / Margins | SHOP | 10.7% net margin vs ONTF's -20.7% |
| Stability / Safety | ONTF | Beta 0.84 vs SHOP's 2.23 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | ONTF | +43.5% vs SHOP's +7.8% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | SHOP | 8.1% ROA vs ONTF's -12.6%, ROIC 9.4% vs -21.0% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
ON24 operates a cloud-based digital experience platform that helps businesses convert engagement into revenue through interactive webinars, virtual events, and multimedia content. The company generates revenue primarily from subscription fees for its software platform — with additional income from professional services like implementation and premium support — serving enterprises across various industries. Its competitive advantage lies in its specialized focus on B2B digital engagement analytics, capturing first-person data that provides unique insights into audience behavior and content effectiveness.
Shopify is a comprehensive commerce platform that enables businesses of all sizes to create online stores, manage sales across multiple channels, and handle operations like payments, shipping, and inventory. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its platform tiers — which account for about 30% of revenue — and merchant solutions like payment processing, shipping, and capital advances that make up the remaining 70%. The company's key advantage is its integrated ecosystem that combines easy-to-use store creation tools with a vast app marketplace and fulfillment network, creating high switching costs for merchants as they grow their businesses.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
SHOP leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). ONTF leads in 2 (Valuation Metrics, Risk & Volatility).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
SHOP is the larger business by revenue, generating $11.6B annually — 83.0x ONTF's $139M. SHOP is the more profitable business, keeping 10.7% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to ONTF's -20.7%. On growth, SHOP holds the edge at +30.6% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | ONTFON24, Inc. | SHOPShopify Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $139M | $11.6B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | -$32M | $1.5B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | -$29M | $1.2B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $4M | $2.0B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +74.6% | +48.1% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | -25.7% | +12.7% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | -20.7% | +10.7% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +2.8% | +17.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -5.6% | +30.6% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +28.6% | -42.0% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | ONTFON24, Inc. | SHOPShopify Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $342M | $157.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $310M | $156.1B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | -11.78x | 128.44x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 60.45x | 65.90x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | 4.38x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | — | 104.11x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 2.45x | 13.62x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 2.44x | 11.69x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 86.08x | 78.44x |
Profitability & Efficiency
SHOP delivers a 9.1% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $9 in annual profit, vs $-21 for ONTF. SHOP carries lower financial leverage with a 0.01x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to ONTF's 0.04x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), SHOP scores 6/9 vs ONTF's 5/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | ONTFON24, Inc. | SHOPShopify Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | -20.7% | +9.1% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | -12.6% | +8.1% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | -21.0% | +9.4% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | -23.2% | +11.0% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 5 | 6 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.04x | 0.01x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$31M | -$1.4B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $37M | $1.5B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $6M | $188M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | -133.98x | — |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in SHOP five years ago would be worth $9,216 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $1,435 for ONTF. Over the past 12 months, ONTF leads with a +43.5% total return vs SHOP's +7.8%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors SHOP at 43.2% vs ONTF's -1.9% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | ONTFON24, Inc. | SHOPShopify Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | +0.6% | -23.2% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +43.5% | +7.8% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -5.6% | +193.5% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -85.6% | -7.8% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -87.2% | +5294.6% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -1.9% | +43.2% |
Risk & Volatility
ONTF is the less volatile stock with a 0.84 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than SHOP's 2.23 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. ONTF currently trades 98.9% from its 52-week high vs SHOP's 66.3% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | ONTFON24, Inc. | SHOPShopify Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.84x | 2.23x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $8.10 | $182.19 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $4.35 | $69.84 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +98.9% | +66.3% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 65.3 | 48.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 404K | 10.0M |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates ONTF as "Hold" and SHOP as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 36.8% upside for SHOP (target: $165) vs 1.1% for ONTF (target: $8).
| Metric | ONTFON24, Inc. | SHOPShopify Inc. |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Hold | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $8.10 | $165.16 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 7 | 63 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 2 | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +6.5% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Feb 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON24, Inc. (ONTF) | 100 | 11.25 | -88.7% |
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | 100 | 100.92 | +0.9% |
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) returned -8% over 5 years vs ON24, Inc. (ONTF)'s -86%.
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON24, Inc. (ONTF) | $83M | $139M | +68.6% |
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | $389M | $11.6B | +2868.2% |
Shopify Inc.'s revenue grew from $389M (2016) to $11.6B (2025) — a 45.8% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON24, Inc. (ONTF) | -21.3% | -20.7% | +2.7% |
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | -9.1% | 10.7% | +217.3% |
Shopify Inc.'s net margin went from -9% (2016) to 11% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 4 Years
| Stock | 2020 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | 435.4 | 171.2 | -60.7% |
Shopify Inc. has traded in a 61x–435x P/E range over 4 years; current trailing P/E is ~128x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ON24, Inc. (ONTF) | -0.43 | -0.68 | -58.1% |
| Shopify Inc. (SHOP) | -0.04 | 0.94 | +2332.8% |
Shopify Inc.'s EPS grew from $-0.04 (2016) to $0.94 (2025).
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
ON24, Inc. generated $4M FCF in 2025 (+144% vs 2021). Shopify Inc. generated $2B FCF in 2025 (+314% vs 2021).
ONTF vs SHOP: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is ONTF or SHOP a better buy right now?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) offers the better valuation at 128.4x trailing P/E (65.9x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Shopify Inc. (SHOP) a "Buy" — based on 63 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — ONTF or SHOP?
On forward P/E, ON24, Inc. is actually cheaper at 60.5x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — ONTF or SHOP?
Over the past 5 years, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) delivered a total return of -7.8%, compared to -85.6% for ON24, Inc. (ONTF). A $10,000 investment in SHOP five years ago would be worth approximately $9K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: SHOP returned +52.9% versus ONTF's -87.2%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — ONTF or SHOP?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), ON24, Inc. (ONTF) is the lower-risk stock at 0.84β versus Shopify Inc.'s 2.23β — meaning SHOP is approximately 166% more volatile than ONTF relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 1% versus 4% for ON24, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — ONTF or SHOP?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is the more profitable company, earning 10.7% net margin versus -20.7% for ON24, Inc. — meaning it keeps 10.7% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: SHOP leads at 12.7% versus -25.7% for ONTF. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — ONTF leads at 74.6%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is ONTF or SHOP more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, ON24, Inc. (ONTF) trades at 60.5x forward P/E versus 65.9x for Shopify Inc. — 5.5x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for SHOP: 36.8% to $165.16.
07Which pays a better dividend — ONTF or SHOP?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
08Is ONTF or SHOP better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, ON24, Inc. (ONTF) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.84)). Shopify Inc. (SHOP) carries a higher beta of 2.23 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (ONTF: -87.2%, SHOP: +52.9%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between ONTF and SHOP?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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