PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
Software - Infrastructure
Market Cap$1.05B
5Y Perf.-87.2%
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Stock Comparison
PGY vs UPST
Revenue, margins, valuation, and 5-year total return — side by side.
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Financial - Credit Services
Market Cap$2.74B
5Y Perf.-73.7%
PGY vs UPST — Key Financials
Market cap, revenue, margins, and valuation side-by-side.
| Company Snapshot | PGY | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | Financial - Credit Services |
| Market Cap | $1.05B | $2.74B |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.22B | $1.08B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $-191M | $49M |
| Gross Margin | 41.0% | 95.2% |
| Operating Margin | 17.8% | 5.1% |
| Forward P/E | 11.9x | 14.5x |
| Total Debt | $681M | $1.85B |
| Cash & Equiv. | $188M | $657M |
PGY vs UPST — Long-Term Stock Performance
Price return indexed to 100 at period start. Dividends excluded.
PGY
UPST
| Stock | Apr 21 | May 26 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pagaya Technologies… (PGY) | 100 | 12.8 | -87.2% |
| Upstart Holdings, I… (UPST) | 100 | 26.3 | -73.7% |
Price return only. Dividends and distributions are not included.
Quick Verdict: PGY vs UPST
Each card shows where this stock fits in a portfolio — not just who wins on paper.
Bottom line: UPST leads in 4 of 7 categories, making it the strongest pick for growth and revenue expansion and profitability and margin quality. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is the stronger pick specifically for valuation and capital efficiency and recent price momentum and sentiment. This set spans 2 sectors — these stocks serve different portfolio roles, not just different price points.
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
The Value Play
PGY is the clearest fit if your priority is value and momentum.
- Lower P/E (11.9x vs 14.5x)
- +29.1% vs UPST's -44.2%
Best for: value and momentum
UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
The Banking Pick
UPST carries the broadest edge in this set and is the clearest fit for income & stability and growth exposure.
- beta 2.96
- Rev growth 58.9%, EPS growth 131.3%
- -2.7% 10Y total return vs PGY's -87.6%
Best for: income & stability and growth exposure
See the full category breakdown
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | UPST | 58.9% NII/revenue growth vs PGY's 30.0% |
| Value | PGY | Lower P/E (11.9x vs 14.5x) |
| Quality / Margins | UPST | 5.0% margin vs PGY's -15.7% |
| Stability / Safety | UPST | Beta 2.96 vs PGY's 3.36 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither stock pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | PGY | +29.1% vs UPST's -44.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | UPST | 1.7% ROA vs PGY's -13.1%, ROIC 1.7% vs 5.5% |
PGY vs UPST — Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
FY 2024
FY 2025
PGY vs UPST — Financial Metrics
Side-by-side numbers across 2 stocks — who leads on profitability, valuation, growth, and risk.
BEST OVERALLPGYLAGGINGUPST
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
1leads
PGYPagaya Technologies L…
3leads
6 Total Categories
CATEGORYLEADERvs UPSTMETRICS WON
Income & Cash FlowRevenue, margins, and cash flow strength
PGY3/5
Valuation MetricsMultiples, price ratios, and targets
PGY5/5
Profitability & EfficiencyROE, ROIC, leverage, and quality scores
PGY5/8
Total Returns1Y, 3Y, 5Y total returns with dividends
UPST4/6
Risk & VolatilityBeta, volatility, and downside exposure
Tied
—
Analyst OutlookRatings, price targets, and dividends
—
—
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
PGY leads this category, winning 3 of 5 comparable metrics.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
PGY and UPST operate at a comparable scale, with $1.2B and $1.1B in trailing revenue. UPST is the more profitable business, keeping 5.0% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to PGY's -15.7%.
| Metric | PGYPagaya Technologi… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.2B | $1.1B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $247M | $68M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | -$191M | $49M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $171M | -$146M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +41.0% | +95.2% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +17.8% | +5.1% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | -15.7% | +5.0% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +14.0% | -15.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +36.3% | — |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +124.7% | -169.2% |
PGY leads this category, winning 3 of 5 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
PGY leads this category, winning 5 of 5 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
On an enterprise value basis, PGY's 16.2x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than UPST's 49.7x.
| Metric | PGYPagaya Technologi… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $1.1B | $2.7B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $1.5B | $3.9B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | -2.62x | 63.73x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 11.95x | 14.53x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | 4.44x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 16.15x | 49.74x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 1.05x | 2.55x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 2.38x | 3.86x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 24.29x | — |
PGY leads this category, winning 5 of 5 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
PGY leads this category, winning 5 of 8 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
UPST delivers a 6.6% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $7 in annual profit, vs $-34 for PGY. PGY carries lower financial leverage with a 1.54x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to UPST's 2.32x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), UPST scores 5/9 vs PGY's 4/9, reflecting solid financial health.
| Metric | PGYPagaya Technologi… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | -33.7% | +6.6% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | -13.1% | +1.7% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +5.5% | +1.7% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +6.0% | +2.4% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 4 | 5 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 1.54x | 2.32x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $493M | $1.2B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $188M | $657M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $681M | $1.9B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | — | 1.66x |
PGY leads this category, winning 5 of 8 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
UPST leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
A $10,000 investment in UPST five years ago would be worth $3,116 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $1,268 for PGY. Over the past 12 months, PGY leads with a +29.1% total return vs UPST's -44.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors UPST at 28.9% vs PGY's 14.3% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | PGYPagaya Technologi… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -33.4% | -37.4% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +29.1% | -44.2% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +49.5% | +114.3% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -87.3% | -68.8% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -87.6% | -2.7% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +14.3% | +28.9% |
UPST leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
Evenly matched — PGY and UPST each lead in 1 of 2 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
UPST is the less volatile stock with a 2.96 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than PGY's 3.36 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500.
| Metric | PGYPagaya Technologi… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 3.36x | 2.96x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $44.99 | $87.30 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $10.40 | $23.96 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +33.0% | +32.9% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 60.6 | 50.5 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 3.0M | 4.7M |
Evenly matched — PGY and UPST each lead in 1 of 2 comparable metrics.
Analyst Outlook
Insufficient data to determine a leader in this category.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates PGY as "Buy" and UPST as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 110.7% upside for PGY (target: $31) vs 57.5% for UPST (target: $45).
| Metric | PGYPagaya Technologi… | UPSTUpstart Holdings,… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $31.25 | $45.17 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 12 | 22 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Insufficient data to determine a leader in this category.
Key Takeaway
PGY leads in 3 of 6 categories (Income & Cash Flow, Valuation Metrics). UPST leads in 1 (Total Returns). 1 tied.
Best OverallPagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)Leads 3 of 6 categories
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PGY vs UPST: Frequently Asked Questions
10 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is PGY or UPST a better buy right now?
For growth investors, Upstart Holdings, Inc.
(UPST) is the stronger pick with 58. 9% revenue growth year-over-year, versus 30. 0% for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY). Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) offers the better valuation at 63. 7x trailing P/E (14. 5x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) a "Buy" — based on 12 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — PGY or UPST?
On forward P/E, Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
is actually cheaper at 11. 9x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — PGY or UPST?
Over the past 5 years, Upstart Holdings, Inc.
(UPST) delivered a total return of -68. 8%, compared to -87. 3% for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: UPST returned -2. 7% versus PGY's -87. 6%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — PGY or UPST?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Upstart Holdings, Inc.
(UPST) is the lower-risk stock at 2. 96β versus Pagaya Technologies Ltd. 's 3. 36β — meaning PGY is approximately 14% more volatile than UPST relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 154% versus 2% for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which is growing faster — PGY or UPST?
By revenue growth (latest reported year), Upstart Holdings, Inc.
(UPST) is pulling ahead at 58. 9% versus 30. 0% for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: Upstart Holdings, Inc. grew EPS 131. 3% year-over-year, compared to -164. 5% for Pagaya Technologies Ltd.. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.
06Which has better profit margins — PGY or UPST?
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
(UPST) is the more profitable company, earning 5. 0% net margin versus -40. 0% for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. — meaning it keeps 5. 0% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: PGY leads at 6. 7% versus 5. 1% for UPST. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — UPST leads at 95. 2%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
07Is PGY or UPST more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
(PGY) trades at 11. 9x forward P/E versus 14. 5x for Upstart Holdings, Inc. — 2. 6x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for PGY: 110. 7% to $31. 25.
08Which pays a better dividend — PGY or UPST?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend.
All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
09Is PGY or UPST better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Upstart Holdings, Inc.
(UPST) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) carries a higher beta of 3. 36 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (UPST: -2. 7%, PGY: -87. 6%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
10What are the main differences between PGY and UPST?
These companies operate in different sectors (PGY (Technology) and UPST (Financial Services)), which means they face different economic cycles, regulatory environments, and macro sensitivities — making direct comparison nuanced.
These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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