10.8% Below Target

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a consensus 12-month price target of $12, implying 10.8% upside from $10.83. The 12 analysts covering ARI see moderate appreciation potential.

ARI has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 12 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 9 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $12 implies 10.8% upside from current levels.

With a forward P/E of 16.3225x, ARI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $12 implies 10.8% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $13.5 for ARI, while the most conservative target is $10.5. The consensus of $12 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $7 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

ARI is moderately covered, with 12 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 9 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

The 12-month ARI stock forecast based on 12 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $10.5 (bear case) to $13.5 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $5, with bear/bull scenarios of $3/$7.

Our quantitative valuation model calculates ARI's fair value at $5 (base case), with a bear case of $3 and bull case of $7. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 43/100.

ARI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 16.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.4x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Wall Street analysts are optimistic on ARI, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $12 price target (10.8% upside). 2 of 12 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

ARI analyst price targets range from $10.5 to $13.5, a 25% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $12 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $3-$7 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.