Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$10.91
Price Target
$12.00
Target Range
$10.50 — $13.50
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E12.6x
Trailing P/E13.5x
Forward PEG0.09
Implied Growth-4.8%
Median Target$12.00
Analyst Spread25.0%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$11
-3.8%
Consensus
$12
+10.0%
Bull Case
$14
+23.7%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 35/100
Bear$5
Base$11
Bull$25
ARI Price Target Analysis
Updated May 8, 2026As of May 8, 2026, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $12.00, based on estimates from 12 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $10.91, this represents a potential upside of +10.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.45B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $10.50 to a high of $13.50, representing a 25% spread in expectations. The median target of $12.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,9 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, ARI trades at a trailing P/E of 13.5x and forward P/E of 12.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.09 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -4.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $11.01, with bear and bull scenarios of $5.19 and $24.74 respectively. Model confidence stands at 35/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Real Estate stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+24.7%
Avg Forward P/E10.8x
Peers with Coverage8 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $3.2B | $19.15 | — | — | Hold | 12.0x | 18 |
 KREFKKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | $423M | $6.58 | $7.00 | +6.4% | Buy | — | 12 |
 TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | $656M | $8.49 | $10.00 | +17.8% | Buy | 8.1x | 11 |
 GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. | $74M | $1.55 | $2.50 | +61.3% | Hold | — | 12 |
 RCReady Capital Corporation | $357M | $2.16 | $2.50 | +15.7% | Buy | — | 16 |
 ACREAres Commercial Real Estate Corporation | $280M | $5.05 | $5.00 | -1.0% | Buy | 16.3x | 13 |
 LADRLadder Capital Corp | $1.3B | $10.26 | $13.00 | +26.8% | Buy | 10.2x | 17 |
 BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc. | $771M | $5.92 | $6.00 | +1.4% | Buy | 9.3x | 8 |
 FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | $696M | $9.04 | $15.33 | +69.6% | Buy | 8.9x | 4 |
 SACHSachem Capital Corp. | $53M | $1.10 | — | — | — | — | — |
Upside Potential Comparison
FBRTGPMTLADRTRTXRCKREFBRSPACRESee ARI's True Return
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Start ComparisonARI — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ARI stock.
What is the ARI stock price target for 2026?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) has a consensus 12-month price target of $12, implying 10.0% upside from $10.91. The 12 analysts covering ARI see moderate appreciation potential.
Is ARI a buy, sell, or hold?
ARI has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 12 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 9 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $12 implies 10.0% upside from current levels.
Is ARI stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 12.6098x, ARI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $12 implies 10.0% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can ARI stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $13.5 for ARI, while the most conservative target is $10.5. The consensus of $12 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $25 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover ARI stock?
ARI is moderately covered, with 12 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 9 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the ARI stock forecast?
The 12-month ARI stock forecast based on 12 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $12, with estimates ranging from $10.5 (bear case) to $13.5 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $11, with bear/bull scenarios of $5/$25.
What is ARI's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ARI's fair value at $11 (base case), with a bear case of $5 and bull case of $25. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 35/100.
What is ARI's forward P/E ratio?
ARI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 13.5x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy ARI stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on ARI, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $12 price target (10.0% upside). 2 of 12 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do ARI price targets vary so much?
ARI analyst price targets range from $10.5 to $13.5, a 25% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $12 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $5-$25 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.