Upside case
Bull case
$238+39.9%
ATO would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering ATO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$180
+6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$114 – $238
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.4B
ATO price targets
Three scenarios for where ATO stock could go
Current
~$170
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $170
Bear
$114
Base
$181
Bull
$238
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$181+6.1%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ATO — at roughly 22x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$114-33.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push ATO down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSeptember year-end
Atmos Energy is a regulated natural gas utility that distributes gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across eight states. It generates revenue primarily through regulated distribution rates (approximately 80% of operating income) and pipeline transportation fees for third parties. The company's key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, providing stable, predictable cash flows with returns approved by state utility commissions.
Market Cap
$28.4B
Revenue TTM
$4.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
27.6%
ATO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$0.99
Revenue
$737M/$721M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.44
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.44
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.47/$3.41
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$0.99 | +8.1% | $737M/$721M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44/$2.44 | +0.0% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44/$2.44 | +0.0% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.47/$3.41 | +1.8% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.3B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$5.7B
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.92
-1.2% YoY
FY2
$7.93
+0.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.0B
FCF Margin: -40.8%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.32
Expected Revenue
$911M
ATO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ATO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Distribution Segment
79.6%
+13.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Distribution Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 79.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.0% YoY.
ATO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $132 — implies -22.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ATO
22.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
7% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
ATO
22.8x
vs
Utilities
19.0x
+20% premium
vs ATO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.8x
vs
5Y Average
19.2x
+19% premium
Forward PE
20.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+8%
Utilities
17.4x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-7%
Utilities
19.0x
+20%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+19%
PEG Ratio
2.59x
S&P 500
1.66x
+56%
Utilities
1.82x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+7%
Utilities
11.9x
+37%
5Y Avg
14.5x
+12%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Utilities
18.6x
—
5Y Avg
23.5x
—
Price/Sales
6.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+95%
Utilities
2.3x
+160%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+42%
Dividend Yield
2.03%
S&P 500
1.91%
+6%
Utilities
3.10%
-35%
5Y Avg
2.53%
-20%
| Metric | ATO | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg ATO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.3x | 18.8x | 17.4x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.8x | 24.4x | 19.0x+20% | 19.2x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.59x | 1.66x+56% | 1.82x+42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3x | 15.2x | 11.9x+37% | 14.5x+12% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 18.6x | 23.5x |
| Price/Sales | 6.0x | 3.1x+95% | 2.3x+160% | 4.2x+42% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.03% | 1.91% | 3.10% | 2.53% |
ATO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolATO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ATO earns 35.9% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.02
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
35.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$204M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
167M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageATO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Decisions
Atmos Energy’s earnings and valuation heavily depend on timely and favorable regulatory decisions regarding rate increases and cost recovery. Delays or unfavorable outcomes can weaken earnings and reduce valuation multiples, making the company highly sensitive to these decisions.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
As a utility with long‑duration cash flows, Atmos Energy is exposed to interest rate fluctuations. Rising rates compress valuation multiples and increase financing costs on new debt, potentially dampening EPS growth and materially affecting financial performance.
High Risk
Operational & Safety Incidents
Gas distribution carries inherent risks of high‑consequence events. Even rare incidents can trigger regulatory scrutiny, higher compliance costs, and reputational damage, disrupting operations and negatively impacting earnings.
Medium
Capital Expenditure Execution
Atmos Energy is undertaking substantial capital investments for system modernization and safety. Risks include cost inflation, contractor constraints, or project delays that could increase spending without commensurate returns, eroding profitability.
Medium
Electrification Trends & Policy Shifts
Changes in energy policy promoting electrification create uncertainty around long‑term natural gas demand. This uncertainty can affect investor sentiment and valuation multiples, limiting growth prospects.
Medium
Concentration of Operations
The company’s significant operations in Texas expose it to state‑specific economic conditions, weather patterns, and regulatory decisions. Adverse conditions in Texas could disproportionately impact Atmos Energy’s financial results, increasing geographic risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ATO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Regulated Business Model
Atmos Energy operates as a fully regulated natural gas distributor, providing a predictable revenue stream that supports consistent growth. The regulated environment shields the company from market volatility, allowing it to maintain stable earnings year over year.
Texas Market Dominance
The company’s extensive pipeline network and large customer base in Texas give it a strong regional foothold. This geographic concentration drives reliability and growth potential in one of the country’s most economically healthy states.
Strong Balance Sheet & EPS Beat
Atmos Energy boasts a robust balance sheet and has consistently delivered earnings per share that exceed analyst expectations. This financial resilience underpins its ability to invest in infrastructure and return value to shareholders.
Attractive Dividend Yield
The stock offers a solid dividend yield of approximately 2.2%, providing a steady income stream for investors. This yield is competitive within the natural gas utility sector and enhances total shareholder return.
Large Market Capitalization
With a market cap exceeding $30 billion, Atmos Energy is a significant player in the natural gas utility sector. Its size signals stability and positions it as a leader among peers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ATO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$170.11
52W Range Position
47%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$149.98
+13.4% from the low
52-Week High
$192.51
-11.6% from the high
1 Month
-4.71%
3 Month
-8.17%
YTD
+0.4%
1 Year
+11.6%
3Y CAGR
+13.6%
5Y CAGR
+11.7%
10Y CAGR
+8.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ATO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.3x
vs 17.5x median
+16% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs +2.9% median
+170% above peer median
Net Margin
27.6%
vs 15.1% median
+83% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATO ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | $28.4B | 20.3x | +7.9% | 27.6% | Hold | +6.0% |
SR SR Spire Inc. | $4.6B | 17.5x | +2.0% | 14.1% | Buy | +24.9% |
NJR NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $5.6B | 15.7x | +2.9% | 15.4% | Buy | +8.3% |
SWX SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6.4B | 20.8x | -2.0% | 18.5% | Buy | +14.2% |
NWN NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $2.1B | 16.0x | +8.0% | 9.6% | Hold | +12.7% |
CPK CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $2.9B | 18.7x | +7.5% | 15.1% | Buy | +17.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ATO Dividend and Capital Return
ATO returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 2.03% dividend, raised 38 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.03%
Payout Ratio
46.2%
How ATO Splits Its Return
Div 2.03%
Dividend 2.03%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
38Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.1%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
167M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.61 | +9.9% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $3.29 | +8.6% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $3.02 | +8.8% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2022 | $2.78 | +8.8% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsATO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $180, implying +6.0% from the current price of $170. The bear case scenario is $114 and the bull case is $238.
02What is the ATO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ATO is $180 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $187 (+9.9% from today), and the low-end target is $167 (-1.8%). The base case model target is $181.
03Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock overvalued in 2026?
ATO trades at 20.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ATO in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Decisions — Atmos Energy’s earnings and valuation heavily depend on timely and favorable regulatory decisions regarding rate increases and cost recovery. (2) Interest Rate Risk — As a utility with long‑duration cash flows, Atmos Energy is exposed to interest rate fluctuations. (3) Operational & Safety Incidents — Gas distribution carries inherent risks of high‑consequence events. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Atmos Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ATO will report consensus revenue of $5.3B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.92 (-1.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.7B in revenue.
06When does Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) report its next earnings?
Atmos Energy Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.32 and revenue of $911M. Over recent quarters, ATO has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Atmos Energy Corporation generate?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) had a free cash outflow of $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 40.8%. ATO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).