Upside case
Bull case
$249+34.8%
ATO would need investors to value it at roughly 30x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
20
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering ATO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$179
-3.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$99 – $249
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.5B
ATO price targets
Three scenarios for where ATO stock could go
Current
~$185
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $185
Bear
$99
Base
$210
Bull
$249
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$210+14.0%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$99-46.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push ATO down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Atmos Energy Corporation
ATO · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSeptember year-end
Atmos Energy is a regulated natural gas utility that distributes gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across eight states. It generates revenue primarily through regulated distribution rates (approximately 80% of operating income) and pipeline transportation fees for third parties. The company's key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, providing stable, predictable cash flows with returns approved by state utility commissions.
Market Cap
$30.5B
Revenue TTM
$4.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
27.6%
ATO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.16/$1.14
Revenue
$839M/$822M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.07/$0.99
Revenue
$737M/$721M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.44
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.44/$2.44
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.16/$1.14 | +1.8% | $839M/$822M | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.07/$0.99 | +8.1% | $737M/$721M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44/$2.44 | +0.0% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.44/$2.44 | +0.0% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.2B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$5.7B
+8.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.15
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$8.51
+4.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.0B
FCF Margin: -40.8%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.33
Expected Revenue
$2.0B
ATO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ATO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Distribution Segment
79.6%
+13.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Distribution Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 79.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 13.0% YoY.
ATO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $148 — implies -21.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ATO
24.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
ATO
24.7x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+25% premium
vs ATO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.7x
vs
5Y Average
19.2x
+29% premium
Forward PE
22.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Utilities
17.2x
+29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-2%
Utilities
19.7x
+25%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+29%
PEG Ratio
2.81x
S&P 500
1.75x
+61%
Utilities
1.73x
+62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+13%
Utilities
11.5x
+50%
5Y Avg
14.5x
+19%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
23.5x
—
Price/Sales
6.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+107%
Utilities
2.2x
+197%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+53%
Dividend Yield
1.87%
S&P 500
1.88%
-0%
Utilities
3.07%
-39%
5Y Avg
2.53%
-26%
| Metric | ATO | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg ATO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.2x | 19.1x+16% | 17.2x+29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.7x | 25.2x | 19.7x+25% | 19.2x+29% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.81x | 1.75x+61% | 1.73x+62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.3x | 15.3x+13% | 11.5x+50% | 14.5x+19% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | 23.5x |
| Price/Sales | 6.5x | 3.1x+107% | 2.2x+197% | 4.2x+53% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.87% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 2.53% |
ATO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolATO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ATO earns 35.9% operating margin on regulated earnings, 1.9% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.02
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
35.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$204M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.45
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
165M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageATO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Decisions
Atmos Energy’s earnings and valuation heavily depend on timely and favorable regulatory decisions regarding rate increases and cost recovery. Delays or unfavorable outcomes can weaken earnings and reduce valuation multiples, making the company highly sensitive to these decisions.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
As a utility with long‑duration cash flows, Atmos Energy is exposed to interest rate fluctuations. Rising rates compress valuation multiples and increase financing costs on new debt, potentially dampening EPS growth and materially affecting financial performance.
High Risk
Operational & Safety Incidents
Gas distribution carries inherent risks of high‑consequence events. Even rare incidents can trigger regulatory scrutiny, higher compliance costs, and reputational damage, disrupting operations and negatively impacting earnings.
Medium
Capital Expenditure Execution
Atmos Energy is undertaking substantial capital investments for system modernization and safety. Risks include cost inflation, contractor constraints, or project delays that could increase spending without commensurate returns, eroding profitability.
Medium
Electrification Trends & Policy Shifts
Changes in energy policy promoting electrification create uncertainty around long‑term natural gas demand. This uncertainty can affect investor sentiment and valuation multiples, limiting growth prospects.
Medium
Concentration of Operations
The company’s significant operations in Texas expose it to state‑specific economic conditions, weather patterns, and regulatory decisions. Adverse conditions in Texas could disproportionately impact Atmos Energy’s financial results, increasing geographic risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ATO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Regulated Business Model
Atmos Energy operates as a fully regulated natural gas distributor, providing a predictable revenue stream that supports consistent growth. The regulated environment shields the company from market volatility, allowing it to maintain stable earnings year over year.
Texas Market Dominance
The company’s extensive pipeline network and large customer base in Texas give it a strong regional foothold. This geographic concentration drives reliability and growth potential in one of the country’s most economically healthy states.
Strong Balance Sheet & EPS Beat
Atmos Energy boasts a robust balance sheet and has consistently delivered earnings per share that exceed analyst expectations. This financial resilience underpins its ability to invest in infrastructure and return value to shareholders.
Attractive Dividend Yield
The stock offers a solid dividend yield of approximately 2.2%, providing a steady income stream for investors. This yield is competitive within the natural gas utility sector and enhances total shareholder return.
Large Market Capitalization
With a market cap exceeding $30 billion, Atmos Energy is a significant player in the natural gas utility sector. Its size signals stability and positions it as a leader among peers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ATO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$184.52
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$149.98
+23.0% from the low
52-Week High
$192.51
-4.2% from the high
1 Month
-1.75%
3 Month
+7.67%
YTD
+9.0%
1 Year
+13.9%
3Y CAGR
+16.1%
5Y CAGR
+12.3%
10Y CAGR
+9.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ATO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.2x
vs 16.6x median
+34% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +3.5% median
+121% above peer median
Net Margin
27.6%
vs 14.5% median
+90% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATO ATO Atmos Energy Corporation | $30.5B | 22.2x | +7.6% | 27.6% | Hold | -3.0% |
SR SR Spire Inc. | $5.1B | 16.6x | +0.5% | 14.5% | Buy | +12.5% |
NJR NJR New Jersey Resources Corporation | $5.5B | 16.2x | +3.5% | 15.4% | Buy | +1.6% |
SWX SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 21.3x | -27.6% | 18.5% | Buy | +5.7% |
NWN NWN Northwest Natural Holding Company | $2.0B | 16.0x | +4.5% | 9.6% | Hold | +17.1% |
CPK CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3.0B | 19.4x | +9.1% | 12.8% | Buy | +12.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ATO Dividend and Capital Return
ATO returns 1.9% total yield, led by a 1.87% dividend, raised 38 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.87%
Payout Ratio
46.2%
How ATO Splits Its Return
Div 1.87%
Dividend 1.87%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.45
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
38Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.1%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
165M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.61 | +9.9% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $3.29 | +8.6% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $3.02 | +8.8% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2022 | $2.78 | +8.8% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsATO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $179, implying -3.0% from the current price of $185. The bear case scenario is $99 and the bull case is $249.
02What is the ATO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ATO is $179 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $195 (+5.7% from today), and the low-end target is $167 (-9.5%). The base case model target is $210.
03Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock overvalued in 2026?
ATO trades at 22.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ATO in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Decisions — Atmos Energy’s earnings and valuation heavily depend on timely and favorable regulatory decisions regarding rate increases and cost recovery. (2) Interest Rate Risk — As a utility with long‑duration cash flows, Atmos Energy is exposed to interest rate fluctuations. (3) Operational & Safety Incidents — Gas distribution carries inherent risks of high‑consequence events. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Atmos Energy Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ATO will report consensus revenue of $5.2B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.15 (+7.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.7B in revenue.
06When does Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) report its next earnings?
Atmos Energy Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $3.33 and revenue of $2.0B. Over recent quarters, ATO has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Atmos Energy Corporation generate?
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) had a free cash outflow of $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 40.8%. ATO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).