Upside case
Bull case
$501+57.8%
AYI would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 33 covering AYI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
18
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$393
+23.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$239 – $501
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.7B
AYI price targets
Three scenarios for where AYI stock could go
Current
~$317
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $317
Bear
$239
Base
$380
Bull
$501
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$380+19.7%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$239-24.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push AYI down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Acuity Brands, Inc.
AYI · NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsAugust year-end
Acuity Brands is a leading North American lighting and building management solutions provider that designs, manufactures, and distributes commercial and architectural lighting fixtures along with intelligent building controls. The company generates revenue primarily through its Acuity Brands Lighting segment — which contributes the vast majority of sales — selling lighting products to electrical distributors, retailers, and contractors, supplemented by its Intelligent Spaces Group offering building automation systems. Its competitive moat lies in its extensive portfolio of established lighting brands, deep relationships with electrical distributors across North America, and integrated lighting-to-controls ecosystem that creates switching costs for commercial customers.
Market Cap
$9.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.5B
Net Income TTM
$410M
Net Margin
9.0%
AYI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$5.12/$4.44
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.20/$4.83
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.69/$4.52
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.14/$4.00
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $5.12/$4.44 | +15.3% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.20/$4.83 | +7.7% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.69/$4.52 | +3.8% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.14/$4.00 | +3.5% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.8B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$5.1B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.04
+15.6% YoY
FY2
$16.01
+6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$535M
FCF Margin: 11.8%
Next Earnings
June 25, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.16
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
AYI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AYI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue -$31M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Intersegment Eliminations
—
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
100.0%
+1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Intersegment Eliminations is the largest disclosed segment at — of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 1.9% YoY.
AYI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $454 — implies +43.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
43.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AYI
25.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AYI
25.3x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
In line with benchmark
vs AYI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.3x
vs
5Y Average
19.4x
+31% premium
Forward PE
16.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-14%
Industrials
21.2x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+4%
Industrials
25.6x
-1%
5Y Avg
19.4x
+31%
PEG Ratio
1.71x
S&P 500
1.66x
+3%
Industrials
1.65x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-7%
Industrials
13.9x
+2%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+19%
Price/FCF
18.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-12%
Industrials
20.0x
-9%
5Y Avg
16.9x
+8%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Industrials
1.6x
+43%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+22%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
S&P 500
1.91%
-89%
Industrials
1.21%
-83%
5Y Avg
0.27%
-24%
| Metric | AYI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AYI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.2x | 18.8x-14% | 21.2x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.3x | 24.4x | 25.6x | 19.4x+31% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.71x | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 11.9x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 18.3x | 20.7x-12% | 20.0x | 16.9x |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-28% | 1.6x+43% | 1.8x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.21% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.27% |
AYI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAYI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AYI generates $535M in free cash flow at a 11.8% margin — 16.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$535M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$423M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$582M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.1× FCF
~1.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
14.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$119M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.65
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
5.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
31M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAYI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Analysts advise caution due to significant sensitivity to interest rate changes and macroeconomic conditions.
High Risk
Revenue Stagnation
The company faces stagnant revenue growth, which contributed to a recent stock plunge despite solid earnings.
Medium
Cooling Backlog
Warnings of a cooling backlog have raised concerns about future performance and investor confidence.
Medium
Foreign Currency Risk
Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates could negatively impact financial performance.
Medium
Market Volatility
Unstable political, social, regulatory, and economic conditions may affect the stock price.
Lower
High Valuation Pressure
In a high-valuation market, even solid earnings may not meet elevated investor expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AYI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Market-leading industrial technology
Acuity Brands is a leader in industrial technology, solving problems in lighting and intelligent spaces through innovative products and services.
Diverse business segments
The company operates through Acuity Brands Lighting (ABL) and Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS), providing diversified revenue streams.
Strong financial overview
Acuity Brands has detailed financials and valuation metrics, supporting a solid investment thesis despite recent challenges.
Scheduling software growth
Acuity Scheduling offers appointment booking and automation, representing a potential growth driver in the software segment.
Attractive forward valuation
The company's forward valuation is appealing, though it remains a 'show me' story due to recent downtrends.
Comprehensive SEC filings
Detailed and accessible SEC filings provide transparency, aiding investor confidence and analysis.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AYI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$317.28
52W Range Position
49%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$257.04
+23.4% from the low
52-Week High
$380.17
-16.5% from the high
1 Month
+12.29%
3 Month
+19.57%
YTD
-15.0%
1 Year
+14.4%
3Y CAGR
+24.4%
5Y CAGR
+12.2%
10Y CAGR
+2.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AYI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.2x
vs 26.5x median
-39% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +6.1% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
9.0%
vs 14.0% median
-35% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AYI AYI Acuity Brands, Inc. | $9.7B | 16.2x | +5.5% | 9.0% | Hold | +23.7% |
HUB HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $27.8B | 26.5x | +6.1% | 15.1% | Hold | +5.3% |
NVT NVT nVent Electric plc | $28.6B | 38.6x | +13.0% | 11.4% | Buy | +6.3% |
ATK ATKR Atkore Inc. | $2.7B | 15.2x | +0.3% | -4.2% | Hold | -2.1% |
GEF GEF Greif, Inc. | $3.3B | 17.8x | +3.1% | 29.0% | Hold | +8.8% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $163.8B | 31.6x | +10.7% | 14.0% | Buy | -1.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AYI Dividend and Capital Return
AYI returns capital mainly through $119M/year in buybacks (1.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.21% dividend — combining for 1.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.21%
Payout Ratio
5.2%
How AYI Splits Its Return
Div 0.21%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.21%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.65
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$119M
Estimated Shares Retired
373.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
31M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.68 | +13.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | +15.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% |
| 2022 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsAYI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $393, implying +23.7% from the current price of $317. The bear case scenario is $239 and the bull case is $501.
02What is the AYI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AYI is $393 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $410 (+29.2% from today), and the low-end target is $375 (+18.2%). The base case model target is $380.
03Is Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) stock overvalued in 2026?
AYI trades at 16.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AYI in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Sensitivity — Analysts advise caution due to significant sensitivity to interest rate changes and macroeconomic conditions. (2) Revenue Stagnation — The company faces stagnant revenue growth, which contributed to a recent stock plunge despite solid earnings. (3) Cooling Backlog — Warnings of a cooling backlog have raised concerns about future performance and investor confidence. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Acuity Brands, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AYI will report consensus revenue of $4.8B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.04 (+15.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.1B in revenue.
06When does Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) report its next earnings?
Acuity Brands, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-25. Consensus expects EPS of $5.16 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, AYI has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Acuity Brands, Inc. generate?
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) generated $535M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.8%. AYI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($119M TTM).