Cash flow generation is erratic and insufficient to cover capital intensity, highlighted by a $70.4 million capital expenditure in 2025Q4 that contributed to a free cash flow trough of -$78.4 million.
| Cash from Operations | 13.27M | 16.73M | 9.36M | -26.81M | -9.92M | 6.02M | -7.81M |
| Operating CF Margin % | - | 13.62% | 9.49% | -40.19% | -21.38% | 15.29% | -58.26% |
| Operating CF Growth % | 24.88% | 78.86% | 134.9% | -170.3% | -264.73% | 177.05% | - |
| Net Income | -11.63M | 4.14M | -15.57M | -77.36M | -42.13M | -6.54M | -12.24M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 15.79M | 15.47M | 17.45M | 11.09M | 9.09M | 6.85M | 2.68M |
| Stock-Based Compensation | 4.01M | 7.1M | 16.16M | 47.8M | 9K | 0 | 0 |
| Deferred Taxes | -373K | -373K | -1.14M | -342K | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Non-Cash Items | 2.09M | -6.57M | -4.5M | 3.68M | 11.76M | 6.49M | 3.39M |
| Working Capital Changes | 3.38M | -3.03M | -3.05M | -11.68M | 11.34M | -774.82K | -1.65M |
| Change in Receivables | 3.39M | 2.75M | -2.13M | -1.08M | 6K | 2.23M | -2.09M |
| Change in Inventory | -370K | -797K | -104K | 1.27M | 183K | -1.2M | 0 |
| Change in Payables | -3.9M | -7.33M | -3.1M | -9.48M | 11.53M | 0 | 1.06M |
| Cash from Investing | -37.78M | -34.44M | 2.06M | 27.16M | -89.81M | -54.76M | -53.3M |
| Capital Expenditures | -83.91M | -80.94M | -4.08M | -20.74M | -25.58M | -53.76M | -53.01M |
| CapEx % of Revenue | 72.53% | 65.9% | 4.14% | 31.09% | 55.15% | 136.51% | 395.19% |
| Acquisitions | 46.85M | 47.83M | 2.59M | 0 | 286K | 0 | 0 |
| Investments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Investing | -724K | -1.33M | 2.49M | -2.51M | 0 | -1M | -296.68K |
| Cash from Financing | 1.6M | -4.32M | 4.67M | -5.83M | 124.93M | 60.76M | 54.99M |
| Debt Issued (Net) | 1.53M | -4.57M | -3.01M | -2.23M | 153.72M | 6.43M | 46.91M |
| Equity Issued (Net) | 0 | 0 | 9.34M | 3.19M | -21.24M | 0 | 10M |
| Dividends Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Share Repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Financing | 70K | 248K | -1.65M | -6.79M | -7.55M | 54.33M | -1.91M |
| Net Change in Cash | -22.59M | -21.7M | 16.15M | -5.52M | 25.2M | 12.02M | -6.13M |
| Free Cash Flow | -70.06M | -64.21M | 5.27M | -47.87M | -35.5M | -47.74M | -61.12M |
| FCF Margin % | -60.55% | -52.28% | 5.35% | -71.77% | -76.53% | -121.22% | -455.66% |
| FCF Growth % | -1693.65% | -1318.17% | 111.01% | -34.86% | 25.64% | 21.89% | - |
| FCF per Share | -1.27 | -1.18 | 0.10 | -0.62 | -0.88 | -1.19 | -1.42 |
| FCF Conversion (FCF/Net Income) | 6.03x | 4.04x | -0.60x | 0.35x | 0.24x | -0.92x | 0.64x |
| Interest Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 810.42K |
| Taxes Paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Extreme Seasonal Cash Burn
As reported in recent financial statements, the relationship between net income and operating cash flow is highly volatile, with OCF/NI ratios swinging from 4.68 in 2025Q2 to -0.72 in 2024Q4, indicating that reported earnings are poor proxies for the company's actual cash-generating capacity during off-peak periods.
The wide variance in the conversion ratio suggests that accrual-based accounting fails to capture the lumpy nature of government contract payments. Investors should monitor whether the disconnect between net income and cash flow persists, as it may imply that the company is struggling to align its cash inflows with the fixed costs of maintaining its specialized fleet.
Based on the company's reported figures, free cash flow trajectory remains erratic, oscillating between a peak of $34.6 million in 2025Q3 and a trough of -$78.4 million in 2025Q4, which highlights the extreme sensitivity of the business model to seasonal operational cycles and capital expenditure timing.
The inability to maintain consistent positive free cash flow suggests that the company remains in a capital-intensive growth phase that is highly vulnerable to seasonal revenue interruptions. This trajectory warrants further investigation into whether the company can achieve self-sustaining cash flow without recurring reliance on external financing.
According to historical cash flow data, capital expenditures reached a significant $70.4 million in 2025Q4, representing a substantial portion of the company's resources and suggesting that fleet expansion or maintenance requirements are currently outpacing the cash generated from core aerial firefighting operations.
The high capital intensity, evidenced by the significant spikes in CapEx relative to revenue, implies that the company is prioritizing asset acquisition over immediate cash preservation. This strategy appears to be a double-edged sword, as it builds the fleet moat while simultaneously straining the company's liquidity position during the off-season.
As evidenced by the quarterly cash flow statements, working capital changes are highly erratic, including a $66.0K inflow in 2026Q1 and a $35.6 million inflow in 2023Q4, which suggests that the company's cash position is heavily influenced by the timing of government contract settlements and accounts receivable management.
The significant fluctuations in working capital indicate that the company's cash flow is highly dependent on the administrative efficiency of its public sector clients. Investors should monitor these swings closely, as they may mask underlying operational cash flow weaknesses during periods of low flight activity.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying BAER stock.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) generated $16.7M in net cash from operating activities in 2025. This reflects the cash generated directly from core business operations.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) reported negative free cash flow of $64.2M in 2025, indicating capital requirements exceeded cash from operations.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) spent $80.9M on capital expenditures in 2025. CapEx represents the cash invested in physical assets like property, plant, and equipment to maintain or grow the business.