Upside case
Bull case
$178+182.5%
DAR would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering DAR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$63
-0.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$32 – $178
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.0B
DAR price targets
Three scenarios for where DAR stock could go
Current
~$63
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $63
Bear
$32
Base
$63
Bull
$178
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$63+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing DAR — at roughly 15x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$32-49.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push DAR down roughly 50% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Darling Ingredients Inc.
DAR · NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsJanuary year-end
Darling Ingredients transforms animal by-products and food waste into valuable ingredients through a circular economy model. It generates revenue primarily from selling rendered animal proteins and fats for animal feed (~60%), food-grade collagen and gelatin (~25%), and renewable diesel feedstock (~15%). The company's moat lies in its massive collection infrastructure—operating the world's largest rendering network—which creates significant scale advantages and high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$10.0B
Revenue TTM
$6.1B
Net Income TTM
$63M
Net Margin
1.0%
DAR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-11.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.12
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.12/$0.13
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.43
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.56
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.12 | -25.0% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12/$0.13 | -7.7% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.64/$0.43 | +48.8% | $1.7B/$1.5B | +11.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.83/$0.56 | +48.2% | $1.6B/$1.6B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.5B
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$6.8B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.63
+317.2% YoY
FY2
$1.79
+9.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$679M
FCF Margin: 11.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DAR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
DAR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Feed Ingredients
65.0%
+8.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
58.8%
+6.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Feed Ingredients is the largest disclosed segment at 65.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.6% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 58.8%, up 6.3% YoY.
DAR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $96 — implies +50.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
50.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DAR
161.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+541% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
DAR
161.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+724% premium
vs DAR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
161.8x
vs
5Y Average
32.0x
+406% premium
Forward PE
15.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-20%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
161.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+541%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+724%
5Y Avg
32.0x
+406%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+36%
5Y Avg
10.1x
+55%
Price/FCF
14.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-31%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
-6%
5Y Avg
18.9x
-22%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-48%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+93%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+14%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DAR | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg DAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.3x | 19.1x-20% | 14.6x | — |
| Trailing PE | 161.8x | 25.2x+541% | 19.6x+724% | 32.0x+406% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.6x | 15.3x | 11.4x+36% | 10.1x+55% |
| Price/FCF | 14.7x | 21.3x-31% | 15.7x | 18.9x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-48% | 0.8x+93% | 1.4x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.73% | — |
DAR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDAR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
DAR generates $679M in free cash flow at a 11.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.39
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$679M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$89M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.0× FCF
~6.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$35M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
159M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Leverage
Darling Ingredients has a significant amount of debt that has increased substantially due to recent acquisitions. This high leverage raises financial risk, particularly during economic downturns or periods of rising interest rates.
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Darling's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices for both raw materials and finished products. This volatility can significantly impact the company's margins and overall financial performance.
High Risk
Dependence on Raw Material Supply
Darling's operations heavily rely on a consistent supply of animal by-products and used cooking oil. Disruptions in these supply chains or regulatory changes can significantly impact production and costs.
Medium
Margin Compression
The company has faced challenges with margin compression, particularly in its renewable diesel segment due to oversupply of imported fuel and increased industry capacity. This could lead to reduced profitability in the affected segments.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
Darling Ingredients is subject to evolving environmental regulations, particularly concerning renewable fuels. Changes in these regulations can impact compliance costs and operational restrictions, affecting profitability.
Medium
Economic Uncertainties
Global economic uncertainties, including trade policies, can affect Darling's cost structure and profitability. The company's historical performance indicates vulnerability during market downturns.
Lower
Competitive Pressure
The industry is highly competitive, requiring continuous innovation and cost competitiveness to maintain market share. Failure to keep pace with competitors could hinder growth prospects.
Lower
Market Acceptance of New Products
Expansion into new product areas carries execution and market acceptance risks. If new products do not gain traction in the market, it could adversely affect revenue growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DAR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
EBITDA Improvement
Darling Ingredients expects an improvement in EBITDA for its feed segment due to higher prices, the return of the Ward, SC plant, and updated contracts.
Strong Revenue Growth
The company anticipates strong revenue growth, with projections for fiscal year 2025 showing revenue of $6.14 billion, a 7.36% increase from the previous year. Revenue is also expected to grow by 3.37% next year.
Rising Demand for Specialty Ingredients
The food segment's EBITDA has shown a robust year-over-year increase of 26%, driven by rising demand for hydrolyzed collagen and gelatin. The strategic Gelnex acquisition positions the company for double-digit growth in 2024.
Supportive Renewable Fuels Policies
Supportive policy settings for renewable fuels are expected to lead to stronger revenue and margin outcomes. Management anticipates imminent Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) policy clarity, with bullish renewable fuel mandates and improving margins for 2026.
Diamond Green Diesel Margin Recovery
The recovery of Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) margins, driven by improving LCFS credit markets and better feedstock economics, is a significant factor for Darling Ingredients' growth.
Recent Earnings Performance
Darling Ingredients recently reported Q4 FY2025 earnings with a significant EPS beat of 48.8% and a revenue beat of 11.6%, which bulls see as a confirmation of the recovery story.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DAR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.11
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.15
+116.5% from the low
52-Week High
$66.02
-4.4% from the high
1 Month
-1.22%
3 Month
+30.93%
YTD
+67.7%
1 Year
+91.9%
3Y CAGR
+3.1%
5Y CAGR
-2.3%
10Y CAGR
+16.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DAR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.3x
vs 62.0x median
-75% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.4%
vs -9.4% median
+168% above peer median
Net Margin
1.0%
vs -5.8% median
+118% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DAR DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | $10.0B | 15.3x | +6.4% | 1.0% | Buy | -0.4% |
GPR GPRE Green Plains Inc. | $1.2B | 48.1x | -9.4% | -5.8% | Buy | -18.7% |
REX REX REX American Resources Corporation | $1.6B | 62.0x | -9.6% | 7.7% | Buy | +24.9% |
CLM CLMT Calumet, Inc. | $3.0B | 451.0x | +4.7% | -0.9% | Hold | -10.1% |
BIO BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | $31M | — | -27.9% | -16.6% | — | — |
AMT AMTX Aemetis, Inc. | $221M | — | -1.0% | -39.0% | Buy | -46.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DAR Dividend and Capital Return
DAR returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$35M
Estimated Shares Retired
549.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
159M
FAQ
7 questionsDAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $63, implying -0.4% from the current price of $63. The bear case scenario is $32 and the bull case is $178.
02What is the DAR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DAR is $63 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $73 (+15.7% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-20.8%). The base case model target is $63.
03Is Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) stock overvalued in 2026?
DAR trades at 15.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DAR in 2026 are: (1) High Leverage — Darling Ingredients has a significant amount of debt that has increased substantially due to recent acquisitions. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — Darling's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices for both raw materials and finished products. (3) Dependence on Raw Material Supply — Darling's operations heavily rely on a consistent supply of animal by-products and used cooking oil. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Darling Ingredients Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DAR will report consensus revenue of $6.5B (+6.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.63 (+317.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.8B in revenue.
06When does Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DAR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Darling Ingredients Inc. generate?
Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) generated $679M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.1%. DAR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($35M TTM).