Upside case
Bull case
$130+79.0%
DXCM would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 22x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
42 bullish · 2 bearish · 52 covering DXCM
Strong Buy
1
Buy
41
Hold
8
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$84
+15.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$62 – $130
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.0B
DXCM price targets
Three scenarios for where DXCM stock could go
Current
~$72
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $72
Bear
$62
Base
$98
Bull
$130
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$98+35.9%
At 38x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$62-14.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push DXCM down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
DexCom, Inc.
DXCM · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - DevicesDecember year-end
DexCom is a medical device company that designs and sells continuous glucose monitoring systems for people with diabetes. It generates revenue primarily from sensor sales — which account for roughly 85% of total revenue — with the remainder coming from transmitters and software services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its highly accurate, real-time CGM technology and its established ecosystem of integrated diabetes management solutions.
Market Cap
$28.0B
Revenue TTM
$4.8B
Net Income TTM
$930M
Net Margin
19.3%
DXCM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.44
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.61/$0.58
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.65
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.47
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.48/$0.44 | +8.2% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.61/$0.58 | +5.9% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.68/$0.65 | +4.6% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.56/$0.47 | +20.3% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +1.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.3B
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$5.8B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.48
+4.7% YoY
FY2
$2.73
+10.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 29.7%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.60
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
DXCM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
DXCM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
100.0%
+33.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 33.1% YoY.
DXCM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $50 — implies -30.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
30.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DXCM
34.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+42% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
DXCM
34.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+57% premium
vs DXCM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.7x
vs
5Y Average
80.9x
57% discount
Forward PE
28.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+49%
Healthcare
18.3x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+42%
Healthcare
22.1x
+57%
5Y Avg
80.9x
-57%
PEG Ratio
3.31x
S&P 500
1.66x
+99%
Healthcare
1.59x
+108%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+61%
Healthcare
14.2x
+72%
5Y Avg
56.6x
-57%
Price/FCF
26.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+25%
Healthcare
18.5x
+40%
5Y Avg
84.5x
-69%
Price/Sales
6.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+94%
Healthcare
2.6x
+128%
5Y Avg
13.7x
-56%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | DXCM | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg DXCM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.0x | 18.8x+49% | 18.3x+53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.7x | 24.4x+42% | 22.1x+57% | 80.9x-57% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.31x | 1.66x+99% | 1.59x+108% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.4x | 15.2x+61% | 14.2x+72% | 56.6x-57% |
| Price/FCF | 26.0x | 20.7x+25% | 18.5x+40% | 84.5x-69% |
| Price/Sales | 6.0x | 3.1x+94% | 2.6x+128% | 13.7x-56% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
DXCM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDXCM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
DXCM generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 29.7% margin — 18.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+16.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
61.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$918M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$472M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.3× FCF
~0.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
33.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$500M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
386M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDXCM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Stock Depreciation
The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 19.77% since previous coverage, indicating significant market concerns.
Medium
Market Expansion Risks
Expansion into the Type 2 diabetes market carries execution risks and potential competitive pressures.
Medium
Revenue Growth Uncertainty
Despite recurring revenue growth, there are concerns about sustainability and market saturation.
Lower
Technological Leadership
While Dexcom has a strong technological edge, maintaining leadership requires continuous innovation.
High Risk
Competitive Pressures
The continuous glucose monitoring space is becoming increasingly competitive, potentially eroding market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DXCM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Product innovation leadership
Dexcom has set the standard in glucose biosensing for 25 years, with best-in-class technologies and continuous product innovation.
Type 2 diabetes expansion
The company is expanding its market reach into Type 2 diabetes, driving user growth and broadening its customer base.
Strong institutional ownership
Dexcom has significant institutional backing, with top holder Vanguard Group owning 11% of the company, indicating strong investor confidence.
Glucose sensing technology
Dexcom is dedicated to developing innovative glucose sensing technology, maintaining its competitive edge in the healthcare sector.
User growth momentum
Despite margin pressures, Dexcom continues to experience user growth, supported by its product offerings and market expansion efforts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DXCM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$72.47
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$54.11
+33.9% from the low
52-Week High
$89.98
-19.5% from the high
1 Month
+11.34%
3 Month
+7.11%
YTD
+8.9%
1 Year
-10.5%
3Y CAGR
-17.7%
5Y CAGR
-7.1%
10Y CAGR
+14.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DXCM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.0x
vs 16.1x median
+73% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.0%
vs +9.9% median
+1% above peer median
Net Margin
19.3%
vs 10.4% median
+85% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DXC DXCM DexCom, Inc. | $28.0B | 28.0x | +10.0% | 19.3% | Buy | +15.3% |
ABT ABT Abbott Laboratories | $153.7B | 16.1x | +9.9% | 31.9% | Buy | +44.2% |
POD PODD Insulet Corporation | $10.2B | 22.5x | +13.5% | 10.4% | Buy | +53.1% |
TND TNDM Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. | $1.0B | — | +8.6% | -9.2% | Buy | +105.2% |
NVC NVCR NovoCure Limited | $1.6B | — | +9.0% | -25.7% | Buy | +131.1% |
INV INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $1.7B | 6.3x | +20.6% | 118.9% | Buy | +64.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DXCM Dividend and Capital Return
DXCM returns 1.8% annually — null% through dividends and 1.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$500M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
386M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsDXCM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 42 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $84, implying +15.3% from the current price of $72. The bear case scenario is $62 and the bull case is $130.
02What is the DXCM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DXCM is $84 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+31.1% from today), and the low-end target is $64 (-11.7%). The base case model target is $98.
03Is DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) stock overvalued in 2026?
DXCM trades at 28.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DXCM in 2026 are: (1) Stock Depreciation — The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 19. (2) Competitive Pressures — The continuous glucose monitoring space is becoming increasingly competitive, potentially eroding market share. (3) Market Expansion Risks — Expansion into the Type 2 diabetes market carries execution risks and potential competitive pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is DexCom, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DXCM will report consensus revenue of $5.3B (+10.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.48 (+4.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.8B in revenue.
06When does DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) report its next earnings?
DexCom, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.60 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, DXCM has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does DexCom, Inc. generate?
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.7%. DXCM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($500M TTM).