Upside case
Bull case
$79+89.0%
FRO would need investors to value it at roughly 10x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 5x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Frontline Ltd. (FRO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
8 bullish · 4 bearish · 22 covering FRO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
10
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$39
-5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$38 – $79
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
5.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.3B
FRO price targets
Three scenarios for where FRO stock could go
Current
~$42
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $42
Bear
$38
Base
$60
Bull
$79
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$60+43.5%
At 8x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$38-9.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push FRO down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Frontline Ltd.
FRO · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Frontline Ltd. is a global oil tanker shipping company that transports crude oil and refined petroleum products across international waters. It generates revenue primarily from chartering its fleet of vessels to oil companies and traders — earning daily spot market rates or longer-term time charter contracts — with its earnings directly tied to global oil demand and shipping rates. The company's competitive advantage lies in its modern, fuel-efficient fleet and operational scale, which allows it to benefit from economies of scale in a capital-intensive industry.
Market Cap
$9.3B
Revenue TTM
$2.3B
Net Income TTM
$905M
Net Margin
40.2%
FRO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-8.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.36/$0.42
Revenue
$480M/$253M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.19/$0.27
Revenue
$433M/$262M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.03/$1.15
Revenue
$425M/$457M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.51/$2.44
Revenue
$537M/$580M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.36/$0.42 | -14.3% | $480M/$253M | +89.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.19/$0.27 | -28.8% | $433M/$262M | +65.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.03/$1.15 | -10.4% | $425M/$457M | -7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.51/$2.44 | +2.9% | $537M/$580M | -7.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.4B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$2.5B
+3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.99
-1.7% YoY
FY2
$3.31
-17.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$592M
FCF Margin: 26.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FRO beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FRO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Voyage Charter
95.8%
-3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Voyage Charter is the largest disclosed segment at 95.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.7% YoY.
FRO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $51 — implies +25.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
25.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FRO
24.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.3x
In line with benchmark
vs Energy Trailing P/E
FRO
24.5x
vs
Energy
15.6x
+56% premium
vs FRO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.5x
vs
5Y Average
7.9x
+211% premium
Forward PE
5.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-72%
Energy
12.5x
-58%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.5x
S&P 500
24.3x
+1%
Energy
15.6x
+56%
5Y Avg
7.9x
+211%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-14%
Energy
7.9x
+67%
5Y Avg
10.3x
+28%
Price/FCF
13.8x
S&P 500
20.4x
-32%
Energy
13.9x
-1%
5Y Avg
28.2x
-51%
Price/Sales
4.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+52%
Energy
1.4x
+230%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+131%
Dividend Yield
2.24%
S&P 500
1.92%
+17%
Energy
3.38%
-34%
5Y Avg
8.40%
-73%
| Metric | FRO | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg FRO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 5.2x | 18.8x-72% | 12.5x-58% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.5x | 24.3x | 15.6x+56% | 7.9x+211% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1x | 15.2x-14% | 7.9x+67% | 10.3x+28% |
| Price/FCF | 13.8x | 20.4x-32% | 13.9x | 28.2x-51% |
| Price/Sales | 4.7x | 3.1x+52% | 1.4x+230% | 2.0x+131% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.24% | 1.92% | 3.38% | 8.40% |
FRO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFRO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FRO generates $592M in free cash flow at a 26.3% margin — returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+18.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
41.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
38.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
40.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.06
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$592M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$251M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.8× FCF
~4.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
36.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (8.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.93
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
54.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
223M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageFRO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The Price/Book ratio of 3.50 and Price/Sales of 4.48 indicate a potentially overvalued stock, raising concerns about a pullback.
High Risk
Technical overextension
Proximity to the 52-week high suggests technical overextension, increasing the risk of a near-term correction.
High Risk
Oil demand softening
Bear case assumes a softening in global oil demand and tanker rates, leading to weaker TCEs and reduced cash returns.
Medium
Cash flow pressure
Potential decline in tanker rates could pressure cash flows and intrinsic NAV, aligning with lower analyst targets.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Current price target of $39.12 may reflect optimistic assumptions, leaving room for downside if expectations are unmet.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FRO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Cyclical rate shock
Frontline benefits from a rare convergence of cyclical rate shocks in the tanker market, driven by Middle East disruptions and increased demand for VLCCs.
Structural supply scarcity
The tanker market faces structural supply scarcity, with VLCCs being absorbed by waiting time, rerouting, and congestion, rather than just responding to crude export volumes.
Elevated spot rates
The bull case assumes sustained elevated spot rates, which would significantly boost Frontline's revenue and profitability.
High utilization rates
Continued high utilization of Frontline's fleet is a key driver, ensuring optimal operational efficiency and revenue generation.
Shareholder returns
Management's commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders is a bullish signal, potentially driving investor confidence and stock performance.
NAV re-rating potential
A re-rating of Frontline's NAV toward analyst highs could validate a materially higher share price, offering upside potential.
Market leadership
Frontline is a world leader in the international seaborne transportation of crude oil and refined products, positioning it well to capitalize on market opportunities.
Institutional investor appeal
Frontline aims to be the natural choice for institutional investors seeking exposure to the large tanker market, enhancing its liquidity and valuation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FRO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$41.58
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.25
+155.9% from the low
52-Week High
$41.87
-0.7% from the high
1 Month
+8.45%
3 Month
+27.27%
YTD
+98.9%
1 Year
+109.4%
3Y CAGR
+39.6%
5Y CAGR
+38.0%
10Y CAGR
+17.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FRO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
5.2x
vs 6.1x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs 0.0% median
Peer median unavailable
Net Margin
40.2%
vs 48.4% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FRO FRO Frontline Ltd. | $9.3B | 5.2x | +7.1% | 40.2% | Hold | -5.9% |
DHT DHT DHT Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 6.1x | +3.0% | 58.6% | Buy | -4.7% |
INS INSW International Seaways, Inc. | $4.4B | 5.9x | +2.8% | 55.4% | Buy | +2.6% |
TEN TEN Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited | $1.2B | 5.2x | -1.6% | 17.7% | Buy | +30.6% |
STN STNG Scorpio Tankers Inc. | $4.3B | 6.4x | -0.9% | 48.4% | Buy | +8.0% |
NAT NAT Nordic American Tankers Limited | $1.3B | 8.2x | 0.0% | 16.3% | Hold | -40.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FRO Dividend and Capital Return
FRO returns 2.2% total yield, led by a 2.24% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.24%
Payout Ratio
54.6%
How FRO Splits Its Return
Div 2.24%
Dividend 2.24%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.93
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
83.7%
5Y Div CAGR
-10.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
223M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.93 | -52.3% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $1.95 | -32.1% | 0.0% | 13.7% |
| 2023 | $2.87 | +1813.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| 2022 | $0.15 | — | 0.0% | 1.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsFRO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Frontline Ltd. (FRO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Frontline Ltd. (FRO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $39, implying -5.9% from the current price of $42. The bear case scenario is $38 and the bull case is $79.
02What is the FRO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FRO is $39 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $42 (+1.0% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-15.8%). The base case model target is $60.
03Is Frontline Ltd. (FRO) stock overvalued in 2026?
FRO trades at 5.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Frontline Ltd. (FRO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FRO in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The Price/Book ratio of 3. (2) Technical overextension — Proximity to the 52-week high suggests technical overextension, increasing the risk of a near-term correction. (3) Oil demand softening — Bear case assumes a softening in global oil demand and tanker rates, leading to weaker TCEs and reduced cash returns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Frontline Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FRO will report consensus revenue of $2.4B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.99 (-1.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.5B in revenue.
06When does Frontline Ltd. (FRO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FRO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Frontline Ltd. generate?
Frontline Ltd. (FRO) generated $592M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.3%. FRO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).