Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RBRK more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 17 covering RBRK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$87
+41.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
351.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.3B
RBRK price targets
Three scenarios for where RBRK stock could go
Current
~$61
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rubrik, Inc.
RBRK · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJanuary year-end
Rubrik is a data security company that provides cloud data management and ransomware protection solutions for enterprises. It generates revenue primarily through subscription-based software licenses — around 90% of its income — with the remainder from professional services and support. The company's key advantage is its zero-trust architecture and unified platform that consolidates data protection, security, and compliance across hybrid cloud environments.
Market Cap
$12.3B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
-$349M
Net Margin
-26.5%
RBRK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
88%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+71.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.15/$-0.32
Revenue
$278M/$260M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.03/$-0.34
Revenue
$310M/$282M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.10/$-0.17
Revenue
$350M/$320M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.04/$-0.11
Revenue
$378M/$342M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.15/$-0.32 | +53.3% | $278M/$260M | +7.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.03/$-0.34 | +91.1% | $310M/$282M | +9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.10/$-0.17 | +158.9% | $350M/$320M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.04/$-0.11 | +136.4% | $378M/$342M | +10.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.7B
+29.0% YoY
FY2
$2.2B
+31.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.49
+16.1% YoY
FY2
$-2.50
-67.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$257M
FCF Margin: 19.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RBRK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RBRK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $892M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Circulation
92.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
71.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription and Circulation is the largest disclosed segment at 92.9% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Americas is the largest reported region at 71.8%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
RBRK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $20 — implies -63.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
63.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RBRK
-34.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
237% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
RBRK
-34.5x
vs
Technology
27.7x
225% discount
vs RBRK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-34.5x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
351.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+1739%
Technology
21.8x
+1510%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-34.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-237%
Technology
27.7x
-225%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.70x
—
Technology
1.48x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Technology
17.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
48.6x
S&P 500
21.4x
+127%
Technology
19.2x
+153%
5Y Avg
43.4x
+12%
Price/Sales
9.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+203%
Technology
2.4x
+284%
5Y Avg
10.6x
-11%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.90%
—
Technology
1.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RBRK | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg RBRK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 351.5x | 19.1x+1739% | 21.8x+1510% | — |
| Trailing PE | -34.5x | 25.1x-237% | 27.7x-225% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.70x | 1.48x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 17.5x | — |
| Price/FCF | 48.6x | 21.4x+127% | 19.2x+153% | 43.4x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 9.3x | 3.1x+203% | 2.4x+284% | 10.6x-11% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.90% | 1.17% | — |
RBRK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRBRK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
RBRK generates $257M in free cash flow at a 19.5% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+48.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-26.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-26.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.78
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$257M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-112.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-15.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$380M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$751M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.9× FCF
~2.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$29M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
196M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRBRK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Profitability and Expenses
Rubrik has not yet achieved profitability and is expected to continue reporting losses in the short term. High operating expenses, particularly marketing costs which account for 58% of revenue, contribute significantly to this unprofitability.
High Risk
Competition and Market Saturation
The cloud and enterprise software space, especially in cybersecurity, is highly competitive. Rubrik risks being overshadowed by larger, more profitable competitors, with Commvault System (CVLT) being a primary competitor in data resilience and recovery.
Medium
AI Disruption Risk
While Rubrik's CEO is confident that AI will not disrupt their core business, analysts remain skeptical about AI's potential to automate data recovery and resilience, which could impact Rubrik's services. The company's revenue model, based on data protection rather than employee count, may mitigate some risk, but increased AI data usage could also enhance their platform's relevance.
Medium
Stock-Based Compensation and Dilution
Concerns have been raised regarding high stock-based compensation inflating free cash flow figures, which could lead to potential dilution for shareholders. This dilution risk may affect shareholder value and confidence.
Lower
Mature Core Business
Rubrik's core business in cloud data recovery and backup solutions is considered mature, limiting growth potential. Future growth is expected to stem from newer areas like identity security and AI Agent Security, which are still in early development stages.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest that Rubrik's stock may be overvalued based on certain market ratios, despite other models indicating it might be undervalued. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio has been noted as expensive compared to peers, raising concerns among investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RBRK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Rubrik has demonstrated significant year-over-year revenue growth, with total revenue reaching $1.32 billion for fiscal year 2026, a 48% increase from the previous year. Subscription revenue also saw a substantial jump, reaching $1.26 billion in FY2026, marking a 53% increase from FY2025.
Expanding Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)
Subscription ARR has been steadily growing, reaching $1.46 billion as of January 31, 2026, which represents a 34% increase year-over-year. This growth indicates a stable and expanding revenue stream for the company.
Strong Market Position and Demand
Rubrik's platform offers 'cyber resilience,' enabling quick recovery from attacks, which is increasingly critical as businesses face rising AI-driven data risks. The global cost of cybercrime is projected to reach $10.5 trillion by 2025, positioning Rubrik to benefit from the growing demand for cybersecurity solutions.
Improving Financials
Rubrik has shown signs of financial improvement, with GAAP gross margin increasing and positive free cash flow generation. In fiscal year 2026, cash flow from operations was $282.9 million, a significant increase from $48.2 million in fiscal 2025.
Strategic Partnerships and AI Focus
Rubrik is actively integrating with major platforms like Microsoft and Google Cloud, and is developing solutions for AI agent security. This positions the company at the forefront of emerging technology trends, enhancing its competitive edge.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RBRK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$61.47
52W Range Position
32%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$42.25
+45.5% from the low
52-Week High
$103.00
-40.3% from the high
1 Month
+16.46%
3 Month
+13.71%
YTD
-18.6%
1 Year
-18.9%
3Y CAGR
+18.4%
5Y CAGR
+10.7%
10Y CAGR
+5.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RBRK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
351.5x
vs 12.9x median
+2631% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+29.0%
vs +10.4% median
+178% above peer median
Net Margin
-26.5%
vs 2.6% median
-1116% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RBR RBRK Rubrik, Inc. | $12.3B | 351.5x | +29.0% | -26.5% | Buy | +41.2% |
CVL CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | $4.5B | 24.7x | +11.0% | 6.0% | Buy | +37.0% |
VRN VRNS Varonis Systems, Inc. | $3.4B | 242.2x | +12.1% | -20.7% | Buy | +25.5% |
QLY QLYS Qualys, Inc. | $3.3B | 12.9x | +8.1% | 29.4% | Hold | +41.5% |
RPD RPD Rapid7, Inc. | $448M | 4.3x | +2.3% | 2.6% | Hold | +46.3% |
TEN TENB Tenable Holdings, Inc. | $2.5B | 11.1x | +10.4% | -1.2% | Buy | +29.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RBRK Dividend and Capital Return
RBRK returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$29M
Estimated Shares Retired
471.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
196M
FAQ
7 questionsRBRK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $87, implying +41.2% from the current price of $61.
02What is the RBRK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RBRK is $87 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $113 (+83.8% from today), and the low-end target is $65 (+5.7%).
03Is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) stock overvalued in 2026?
RBRK trades at 351.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RBRK in 2026 are: (1) Profitability and Expenses — Rubrik has not yet achieved profitability and is expected to continue reporting losses in the short term. (2) Competition and Market Saturation — The cloud and enterprise software space, especially in cybersecurity, is highly competitive. (3) AI Disruption Risk — While Rubrik's CEO is confident that AI will not disrupt their core business, analysts remain skeptical about AI's potential to automate data recovery and resilience, which could impact Rubrik's services. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rubrik, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RBRK will report consensus revenue of $1.7B (+29.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.49 (+16.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.2B in revenue.
06When does Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RBRK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Rubrik, Inc. generate?
Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) generated $257M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.5%. RBRK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($29M TTM).