Upside case
Bull case
$288-10.3%
The bull case prices SHW at 25x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 38 covering SHW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$375
+16.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$138 – $288
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $79.1B
SHW price targets
Three scenarios for where SHW stock could go
Current
~$321
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $321
Bear
$138
Base
$218
Bull
$288
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$218-31.9%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$138-57.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push SHW down roughly 57% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Sherwin-Williams Company
SHW · NYSEBasic MaterialsChemicals - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Sherwin-Williams is a global manufacturer and retailer of paints, coatings, and related products for professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers. It generates revenue primarily through architectural paint sales (~60% of revenue), industrial coatings (~25%), and consumer brands (~15%) sold through its extensive retail network and distribution channels. The company's key advantage is its vertically integrated model — combining manufacturing, distribution, and retail — supported by North America's largest network of company-owned paint stores that creates a powerful distribution moat.
Market Cap
$79.1B
Revenue TTM
$23.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
10.9%
SHW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.38/$3.76
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.59/$3.45
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.23/$2.16
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.35/$2.27
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.38/$3.76 | -10.1% | $6.3B/$6.3B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.59/$3.45 | +4.1% | $6.4B/$6.2B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.23/$2.16 | +3.2% | $5.6B/$5.6B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.35/$2.27 | +3.5% | $5.7B/$5.6B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$24.8B
+3.8% YoY
FY2
$25.6B
+3.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.27
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$12.13
+7.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.9B
FCF Margin: 12.1%
Next Earnings
July 28, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.48
Expected Revenue
$6.6B
SHW beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SHW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $23.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Paint Stores Group
57.7%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Paint Stores Group is the largest disclosed segment at 57.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.2% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SHW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $197 — implies -38.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
38.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SHW
31.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+28% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
SHW
31.2x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+32% premium
vs SHW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.2x
vs
5Y Average
35.7x
13% discount
Forward PE
27.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+45%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+84%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+28%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+32%
5Y Avg
35.7x
-13%
PEG Ratio
4.51x
S&P 500
1.66x
+172%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+267%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+40%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+93%
5Y Avg
23.8x
-11%
Price/FCF
29.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+44%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+3%
5Y Avg
40.3x
-26%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+9%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+78%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-8%
Dividend Yield
0.99%
S&P 500
1.91%
-48%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-30%
5Y Avg
0.84%
+18%
| Metric | SHW | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg SHW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.4x | 18.8x+45% | 14.9x+84% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.2x | 24.4x+28% | 23.6x+32% | 35.7x-13% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.51x | 1.66x+172% | 1.23x+267% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.3x | 15.2x+40% | 11.0x+93% | 23.8x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 29.8x | 20.7x+44% | 29.0x | 40.3x-26% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 1.9x+78% | 3.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.99% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 0.84% |
SHW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSHW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SHW generates $2.9B in free cash flow at a 12.1% margin — 16.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$23.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
49.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$207M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.9× FCF
~4.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
58.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (16.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.0%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.17
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
247M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSHW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Housing Market Weakness
Persistent weakness in the housing market and key end markets has contributed to a 10% stock decline since February 2026.
Medium
Operational Risks
Sherwin-Williams disclosed 22 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and market challenges.
Lower
Market Volatility
The company's performance is subject to broader market volatility, as reflected in its fluctuating stock price and sales growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SHW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Large multi-year contract win
Sherwin-Williams secured a US$127.5 million global contract to supply paints and coatings from 2026 over five years, demonstrating its ability to secure substantial, long-term revenue streams.
Resilient financial performance
The company reported strong Q1 2026 results with US$5,666.9 million in sales and US$534.7 million net income, alongside higher earnings per share, indicating robust profitability in a challenging environment.
Global industry leadership
As a global leader in paints and coatings since 1866, Sherwin-Williams has a strong market position serving professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers worldwide.
Upgraded analyst rating
Sherwin-Williams received a rating upgrade following resilient results, reflecting positive Wall Street sentiment and confidence in the company's performance.
Investor engagement
The company's scheduled financial community presentation in 2026 demonstrates management's commitment to transparency and engagement with the investment community.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SHW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$320.79
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$289.86
+10.7% from the low
52-Week High
$379.65
-15.5% from the high
1 Month
+5.95%
3 Month
+2.78%
YTD
-2.2%
1 Year
-3.2%
3Y CAGR
+8.9%
5Y CAGR
+3.6%
10Y CAGR
+12.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SHW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.4x
vs 14.2x median
+92% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.8%
vs +1.7% median
+123% above peer median
Net Margin
10.9%
vs 7.2% median
+50% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHW SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company | $79.1B | 27.4x | +3.8% | 10.9% | Buy | +16.8% |
PPG PPG PPG Industries, Inc. | $26.5B | 15.0x | +2.4% | 9.8% | Buy | +8.7% |
RPM RPM RPM International Inc. | $13.8B | 19.7x | +4.1% | 8.8% | Buy | +15.4% |
AXT AXTA Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7.4B | 13.4x | +1.3% | 7.2% | Hold | -2.2% |
HUN HUN Huntsman Corporation | $2.1B | — | +1.7% | -5.7% | Hold | +14.3% |
EMN EMN Eastman Chemical Company | $8.3B | 11.4x | +0.1% | 4.6% | Buy | +10.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SHW Dividend and Capital Return
SHW returns 1.0% total yield, led by a 0.99% dividend, raised 41 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.99%
Payout Ratio
30.7%
How SHW Splits Its Return
Div 0.99%
Dividend 0.99%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.17
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
41Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.6%
5Y Div CAGR
12.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
247M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.16 | +10.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $2.86 | +18.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% |
| 2023 | $2.42 | +0.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $2.40 | +9.1% | 1.4% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsSHW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $375, implying +16.8% from the current price of $321. The bear case scenario is $138 and the bull case is $288.
02What is the SHW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SHW is $375 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $410 (+27.8% from today), and the low-end target is $330 (+2.9%). The base case model target is $218.
03Is The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) stock overvalued in 2026?
SHW trades at 27.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SHW in 2026 are: (1) Housing Market Weakness — Persistent weakness in the housing market and key end markets has contributed to a 10% stock decline since February 2026. (2) Operational Risks — Sherwin-Williams disclosed 22 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating significant operational and market challenges. (3) Market Volatility — The company's performance is subject to broader market volatility, as reflected in its fluctuating stock price and sales growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Sherwin-Williams Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SHW will report consensus revenue of $24.8B (+3.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.27 (+7.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $25.6B in revenue.
06When does The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) report its next earnings?
The Sherwin-Williams Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-28. Consensus expects EPS of $3.48 and revenue of $6.6B. Over recent quarters, SHW has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Sherwin-Williams Company generate?
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) generated $2.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.1%. SHW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).