Upside case
Bull case
$890+51.0%
UI would need investors to value it at roughly 58x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 39x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
21
analysts
6 bullish · 5 bearish · 21 covering UI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
10
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$672
+14.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$426 – $890
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
38.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $35.7B
UI price targets
Three scenarios for where UI stock could go
Current
~$589
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $589
Bear
$426
Base
$676
Bull
$890
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$676+14.6%
At 44x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$426-27.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push UI down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ubiquiti Inc.
UI · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentJune year-end
Ubiquiti designs and manufactures networking hardware and software for service providers, enterprises, and consumers. It generates revenue primarily through direct sales of its proprietary networking platforms—including wireless broadband, enterprise Wi-Fi, and video surveillance systems—via its e-commerce website. The company's key advantage is its vertically integrated business model, which combines proprietary hardware, software, and cloud management into unified ecosystems that create high switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$35.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.1B
Net Income TTM
$942M
Net Margin
30.4%
UI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.54/$2.23
Revenue
$759M/$635M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.46/$2.93
Revenue
$734M/$702M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.88/$3.08
Revenue
$815M/$727M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.88/$4.29
Revenue
$788M/$814M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.54/$2.23 | +58.7% | $759M/$635M | +19.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.46/$2.93 | +18.1% | $734M/$702M | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.88/$3.08 | +26.0% | $815M/$727M | +12.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.88/$4.29 | -9.6% | $788M/$814M | -3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+8.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.85
-4.5% YoY
FY2
$15.01
+1.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$750M
FCF Margin: 24.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
UI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Enterprise Technology
87.6%
+39.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
34.4%
+36.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Enterprise Technology is the largest disclosed segment at 87.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 39.4% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 34.4%, up 36.9% YoY.
UI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $1391 — implies +135.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
135.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UI
50.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+105% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
UI
50.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+73% premium
vs UI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.1x
vs
5Y Average
31.7x
+58% premium
Forward PE
38.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+105%
Technology
22.3x
+74%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+105%
Technology
29.0x
+73%
5Y Avg
31.7x
+58%
PEG Ratio
3.30x
S&P 500
1.66x
+99%
Technology
1.51x
+119%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
41.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+174%
Technology
16.6x
+151%
5Y Avg
25.7x
+63%
Price/FCF
56.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+175%
Technology
19.2x
+196%
5Y Avg
33.1x
+72%
Price/Sales
13.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+348%
Technology
2.4x
+468%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+77%
Dividend Yield
0.41%
S&P 500
1.91%
-79%
Technology
1.11%
-63%
5Y Avg
1.01%
-60%
| Metric | UI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg UI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 38.6x | 18.8x+105% | 22.3x+74% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.1x | 24.4x+105% | 29.0x+73% | 31.7x+58% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.30x | 1.66x+99% | 1.51x+119% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.7x | 15.2x+174% | 16.6x+151% | 25.7x+63% |
| Price/FCF | 56.9x | 20.7x+175% | 19.2x+196% | 33.1x+72% |
| Price/Sales | 13.9x | 3.1x+348% | 2.4x+468% | 7.8x+77% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.41% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.01% |
UI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
UI generates $750M in free cash flow at a 24.2% margin — 81.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+33.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.55
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$750M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
81.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
60.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$150M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$148M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
101.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$778000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
61M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Sanctions and legal risk
Ubiquiti faces reputational and legal risks as its networking equipment reaches Russian forces despite U.S. and EU sanctions.
Medium
Growth slowdown
Analysts highlight potential challenges and a bear case scenario, questioning whether Ubiquiti's growth is slowing down.
Medium
Business model transition
Ubiquiti's long-term growth depends on transitioning from a hardware company to a broader platform for connected homes and offices, which carries execution risk.
Lower
Valuation de-rating
The bear case stock price target of $584 reflects potential downside risks to revenue growth and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong earnings performance
Ubiquiti reported quarterly results with earnings per share and revenue above analyst expectations, alongside recognition for strong profitability, financial health, and growth metrics.
Upgraded analyst rating
Ubiquiti was elevated to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), reflecting upgraded earnings forecasts and a more favorable earnings outlook for the business.
Bullish revenue projections
A research-backed model projects a base case stock price of $733.23 by 2030, with a bull case assuming faster-than-expected adoption of new products and a 3-year CAGR of +12%.
Innovative product offerings
Ubiquiti's PoE-powered sensor with real-time vape detection, air quality monitoring, and instant environmental alerts showcases its innovative capabilities.
Bundled product strategy
Ubiquiti offers bundled packages combining top-performing gear, providing cost savings and maximum performance for customers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$589.46
52W Range Position
30%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$368.42
+60.0% from the low
52-Week High
$1099.99
-46.4% from the high
1 Month
-2.41%
3 Month
-24.90%
YTD
+4.1%
1 Year
+56.4%
3Y CAGR
+48.4%
5Y CAGR
+14.8%
10Y CAGR
+30.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
38.6x
vs 65.6x median
-41% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.4%
vs +10.5% median
-20% below peer median
Net Margin
30.4%
vs 3.2% median
+852% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UI UI Ubiquiti Inc. | $35.7B | 38.6x | +8.4% | 30.4% | Hold | +14.0% |
NTG NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | $630M | 115.3x | 0.0% | -5.8% | Hold | +56.2% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $60.6B | 65.6x | +10.5% | 7.9% | Buy | +15.2% |
CAL CALX Calix, Inc. | $2.5B | 21.4x | +12.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +60.7% |
ARL ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. | $1.4B | 15.5x | +6.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +49.3% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.2B | 79.4x | +13.1% | -6.1% | Buy | -3.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UI Dividend and Capital Return
UI returns 0.4% total yield, led by a 0.41% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.41%
Payout Ratio
20.4%
How UI Splits Its Return
Div 0.41%
Dividend 0.41%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.3%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$778000
Estimated Shares Retired
1.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
61M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.80 | +16.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2023 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $2.40 | +20.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsUI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $672, implying +14.0% from the current price of $589. The bear case scenario is $426 and the bull case is $890.
02What is the UI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UI is $672 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $672 (+14.0% from today), and the low-end target is $672 (+14.0%). The base case model target is $676.
03Is Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) stock overvalued in 2026?
UI trades at 38.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UI in 2026 are: (1) Sanctions and legal risk — Ubiquiti faces reputational and legal risks as its networking equipment reaches Russian forces despite U. (2) Growth slowdown — Analysts highlight potential challenges and a bear case scenario, questioning whether Ubiquiti's growth is slowing down. (3) Business model transition — Ubiquiti's long-term growth depends on transitioning from a hardware company to a broader platform for connected homes and offices, which carries execution risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ubiquiti Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UI will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+8.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.85 (-4.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ubiquiti Inc. generate?
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) generated $750M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.2%. UI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($778000 TTM).