Upside case
Bull case
$2430+136.3%
UI would need investors to value it at roughly 151x earnings — about 87x more generous than today's 64x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
21
analysts
6 bullish · 5 bearish · 21 covering UI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
10
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$527
-48.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$942 – $2430
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
63.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $62.2B
UI price targets
Three scenarios for where UI stock could go
Current
~$1028
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1028
Bear
$942
Base
$1772
Bull
$2430
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1772+72.3%
At 110x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$942-8.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push UI down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ubiquiti Inc.
UI · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentJune year-end
Ubiquiti designs and manufactures networking hardware and software for service providers, enterprises, and consumers. It generates revenue primarily through direct sales of its proprietary networking platforms—including wireless broadband, enterprise Wi-Fi, and video surveillance systems—via its e-commerce website. The company's key advantage is its vertically integrated business model, which combines proprietary hardware, software, and cloud management into unified ecosystems that create high switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$62.2B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$889M
Net Margin
29.9%
UI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$3.00/$1.97
Revenue
$664M/$622M
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.54/$2.23
Revenue
$759M/$635M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.46/$2.93
Revenue
$734M/$702M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.88/$3.08
Revenue
$815M/$727M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $3.00/$1.97 | +52.3% | $664M/$622M | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.54/$2.23 | +58.7% | $759M/$635M | +19.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.46/$2.93 | +18.1% | $734M/$702M | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.88/$3.08 | +26.0% | $815M/$727M | +12.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.6B
+21.9% YoY
FY2
$4.5B
+23.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.07
+16.4% YoY
FY2
$20.26
+18.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$708M
FCF Margin: 23.8%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.29
Expected Revenue
$814M
UI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
UI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Enterprise Technology
87.6%
+39.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
34.4%
+36.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Enterprise Technology is the largest disclosed segment at 87.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 39.4% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 34.4%, up 36.9% YoY.
UI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $533 — implies -47.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UI
87.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+247% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
UI
87.4x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+218% premium
vs UI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
87.4x
vs
5Y Average
31.7x
+176% premium
Forward PE
63.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
+235%
Technology
21.7x
+194%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
87.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+247%
Technology
27.5x
+218%
5Y Avg
31.7x
+176%
PEG Ratio
5.76x
S&P 500
1.75x
+230%
Technology
1.47x
+293%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
72.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+376%
Technology
17.4x
+318%
5Y Avg
25.7x
+183%
Price/FCF
99.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+365%
Technology
19.8x
+401%
5Y Avg
33.1x
+199%
Price/Sales
24.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+672%
Technology
2.4x
+902%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+209%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
S&P 500
1.88%
-88%
Technology
1.18%
-80%
5Y Avg
1.01%
-77%
| Metric | UI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg UI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 63.9x | 19.1x+235% | 21.7x+194% | — |
| Trailing PE | 87.4x | 25.2x+247% | 27.5x+218% | 31.7x+176% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.76x | 1.75x+230% | 1.47x+293% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 72.7x | 15.3x+376% | 17.4x+318% | 25.7x+183% |
| Price/FCF | 99.2x | 21.3x+365% | 19.8x+401% | 33.1x+199% |
| Price/Sales | 24.2x | 3.1x+672% | 2.4x+902% | 7.8x+209% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.23% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.01% |
UI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
UI generates $708M in free cash flow at a 23.8% margin — 81.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+38.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.67
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$708M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
81.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
55.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$150M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$148M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
87.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$778000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
61M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageUI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Potential Value Trap
Ubiquiti’s low Beneish M‑Score suggests possible earnings manipulation, raising the risk that the stock is a value trap. A value trap can lead to a sudden correction if earnings do not support the current valuation.
High Risk
Contracting Gross Margin
The company’s gross margin has contracted over the past three years, eroding profitability and financial stability. A shrinking margin can limit growth and reduce cash flow, impacting future earnings.
Medium
Price Volatility
UI’s ATR places it in the top 10% of volatility, indicating large daily price swings. High volatility can trigger profit‑taking and amplify market sentiment shifts, affecting investor confidence.
Medium
Overvaluation Concerns
Despite solid financials, there are concerns the stock is overvalued, contributing to price swings. Overvaluation can lead to a sharp pullback if earnings fail to justify the premium.
Medium
Technological Obsolescence
The networking industry evolves rapidly, and Ubiquiti’s products risk becoming obsolete if new standards emerge. Obsolescence can erode market share and force costly product updates.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Debt-Free, Cost-Efficient Growth Engine
Ubiquiti operates with no debt, underscoring a clean balance sheet. This financial solidity allows the company to invest freely in growth initiatives while maintaining cost efficiency.
$800M Revenue Milestone & 2025 Product Pipeline
The company surpassed $800 million in revenue during its fiscal second quarter, marking a first for the firm. A broad slate of new product introductions slated for 2025 is expected to sustain this upward trajectory.
Capital-Light, High-Margin Cash Generation
Ubiquiti’s capital-light model converts robust sales into high margins and strong cash flow. It has successfully paid down debt while keeping inventory levels healthy, reflecting operational excellence.
Strong Return on Equity & Market Outperformance
The firm boasts a notable return on equity, outperforming both the broader market and its industry peers over the past year. This performance signals disciplined capital allocation and profitability.
Upward Earnings Revision Boosting Outlook
Analysts have revised earnings estimates for Ubiquiti upwards, reinforcing a positive earnings outlook. The upward revision reflects confidence in sustained product demand and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1028.31
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$337.05
+205.1% from the low
52-Week High
$1099.99
-6.5% from the high
1 Month
+22.40%
3 Month
+65.24%
YTD
+81.6%
1 Year
+198.4%
3Y CAGR
+74.8%
5Y CAGR
+31.0%
10Y CAGR
+39.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
63.9x
vs 80.0x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.9%
vs +13.7% median
+60% above peer median
Net Margin
29.9%
vs 2.8% median
+960% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UI UI Ubiquiti Inc. | $62.2B | 63.9x | +21.9% | 29.9% | Hold | -48.8% |
NTG NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | $699M | 127.8x | -3.5% | -5.8% | Hold | +40.8% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $81.6B | 93.8x | +15.7% | 4.5% | Buy | -42.1% |
CAL CALX Calix, Inc. | $2.9B | 25.0x | +13.7% | 3.2% | Buy | +37.6% |
ARL ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. | $1.5B | 18.1x | +4.7% | 2.8% | Buy | +20.1% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.1B | 80.0x | +16.7% | -8.3% | Buy | -2.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UI Dividend and Capital Return
UI returns 0.2% total yield, led by a 0.23% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
Payout Ratio
20.4%
How UI Splits Its Return
Div 0.23%
Dividend 0.23%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.3%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$778000
Estimated Shares Retired
757
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
61M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.80 | +16.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2024 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2023 | $2.40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $2.40 | +20.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsUI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $527, implying -48.8% from the current price of $1028. The bear case scenario is $942 and the bull case is $2430.
02What is the UI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UI is $527 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $527 (-48.8% from today), and the low-end target is $527 (-48.8%). The base case model target is $1772.
03Is Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) stock overvalued in 2026?
UI trades at 63.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UI in 2026 are: (1) Potential Value Trap — Ubiquiti’s low Beneish M‑Score suggests possible earnings manipulation, raising the risk that the stock is a value trap. (2) Contracting Gross Margin — The company’s gross margin has contracted over the past three years, eroding profitability and financial stability. (3) Price Volatility — UI’s ATR places it in the top 10% of volatility, indicating large daily price swings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ubiquiti Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UI will report consensus revenue of $3.6B (+21.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.07 (+16.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.5B in revenue.
06When does Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) report its next earnings?
Ubiquiti Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $4.29 and revenue of $814M. Over recent quarters, UI has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ubiquiti Inc. generate?
Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) generated $708M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. UI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($778000 TTM).