MODEL VERDICT
Acadian Asset Management (AAMI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $78.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $74.00 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $72.31 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $71.58 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $68.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $33.49 | -57.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $5.49 | -93.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $7.22 | -90.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $1.25 | -98.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $33.46 | -57.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $51.21 | -34.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.02 | -73.2% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $68 | $74 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| Conservative (5%) | $70 | $77 | $84 | $90 | $97 |
| Base Case (-8.8%) | $60 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $85 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.50 | 8.83 | 2.49 | 21.27 | 6.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.22 | 8.66 | 4.55 | 11.66 | 2.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.13 | 8.23 | 6.01 | 13.58 | 2.81 |
| P/FCF | 15.93 | 14.95 | 8.82 | 24.47 | 7.14 |
| P/FFO | 8.01 | 7.45 | 2.42 | 17.61 | 5.09 |
| P/TBV | 16.91 | 17.68 | 4.34 | 27.91 | 9.89 |
| P/AFFO | 9.12 | 8.61 | 2.47 | 20.09 | 5.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.43 | 11.59 | 4.11 | 20.25 | 7.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.51 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 3.93 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AAMI's fair value at $21.02 vs the current price of $78.54, implying -73.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.63 (P10) to $28.45 (P90), with a median of $23.29.
AAMI's current P/E of 35.5x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +134.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover AAMI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $68.67 (range: $60.00 — $80.00), implying -12.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AAMI trades at the 8370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AAMI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4540.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.