MODEL VERDICT
Ambev S.A. (ABEV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $2.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $2.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $19.95 | +587.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $33.72 | +1062.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $23.96 | +726.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $25.22 | +769.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $27.20 | +837.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $29.19 | +906.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $8.87 | +205.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $17.17 | +492.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $13.10 | +351.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $23.96 | +726.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $25.22 | +769.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.86 | +619.2% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Base Case (4.2%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.96 | 3.50 | 2.03 | 6.30 | 1.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.32 | 1.98 | 0.19 | 4.41 | 1.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.65 | 1.37 | 0.14 | 3.14 | 0.97 |
| P/FCF | 3.29 | 3.06 | 1.37 | 5.56 | 1.35 |
| P/FFO | 2.79 | 2.46 | 1.36 | 4.49 | 1.12 |
| P/TBV | 1.93 | 1.38 | 0.69 | 3.58 | 1.14 |
| P/AFFO | 3.99 | 4.10 | 1.74 | 6.49 | 1.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 1.18 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.28 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.79 | 0.61 | 0.33 | 1.42 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABEV's fair value at $20.86 vs the current price of $2.90, implying +619.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.56 (P10) to $21.21 (P90), with a median of $18.84.
ABEV's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -39.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover ABEV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.84 (range: $2.65 — $3.00), implying -2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ABEV trades at the 4000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABEV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3410.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.