MODEL VERDICT
Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $124.14 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $129.94 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $124.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $119.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $114.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $94.98 | -23.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $94.19 | -24.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $93.25 | -24.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $102.48 | -17.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $125.73 | +1.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $91.27 | -26.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $143.79 | +15.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $174.92 | +40.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $179.87 | +44.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $92.57 | -25.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $101.90 | -17.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $105.32 | -15.2% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $112 | $121 | $130 | $139 | $148 |
| Conservative (9%) | $116 | $125 | $134 | $144 | $153 |
| Base Case (14.2%) | $121 | $131 | $140 | $150 | $160 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $126 | $136 | $147 | $157 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.60 | 25.20 | 10.76 | 50.65 | 12.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.23 | 19.16 | 8.82 | 31.29 | 8.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.25 | 11.57 | 6.09 | 16.01 | 3.24 |
| P/FCF | 34.53 | 29.68 | 7.89 | 72.60 | 26.49 |
| P/FFO | 11.79 | 12.05 | 6.59 | 16.35 | 2.88 |
| P/TBV | 3.79 | 3.21 | 1.93 | 6.48 | 1.60 |
| P/AFFO | 24.33 | 19.60 | 10.06 | 47.69 | 12.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.54 | 1.41 | 1.20 | 1.99 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.49 | 1.38 | 1.18 | 1.84 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACA's fair value at $105.32 vs the current price of $124.14, implying -15.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $105.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.99 (P10) to $118.10 (P90), with a median of $104.36.
ACA's current P/E of 29.3x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +33.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover ACA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $140.00 (range: $140.00 — $140.00), implying +12.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ACA trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1370.0% to approximately $141. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.