MODEL VERDICT
Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $17.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $36.62 | +120.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $47.55 | +186.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $53.10 | +219.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $26.59 | +60.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $22.34 | +34.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $8.97 | -46.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $58.06 | +249.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $52.63 | +216.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $45.52 | +173.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $46.26 | +178.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $26.59 | +60.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.91 | +104.0% | 100% | 88 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $10 | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 |
| Conservative (10%) | $11 | $14 | $18 | $22 | $25 |
| Base Case (15.4%) | $11 | $15 | $19 | $23 | $26 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $12 | $16 | $20 | $24 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.91 | 11.18 | 9.14 | 11.98 | 1.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.01 | 13.17 | 10.43 | 16.01 | 2.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.98 | 6.07 | 5.38 | 6.55 | 0.47 |
| P/FCF | 12.88 | 15.30 | 4.47 | 21.28 | 6.79 |
| P/FFO | 3.35 | 3.42 | 2.79 | 3.66 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 7.04 | 7.51 | 6.09 | 7.82 | 0.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.51 | 4.86 | 3.39 | 7.67 | 1.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACI's fair value at $33.91 vs the current price of $16.62, implying +104.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.54 (P10) to $37.62 (P90), with a median of $31.42.
ACI's current P/E of 10.1x compares to the industry median of 32.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -68.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover ACI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.63 (range: $14.00 — $23.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2080.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.