MODEL VERDICT
Acacia Research Corporation (ACTG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $10.86 | +111.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $6.77 | +32.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $10.48 | +104.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $3.30 | -35.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $13.37 | +160.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $20.72 | +303.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $18.65 | +263.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $6.77 | +32.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $36.95 | +620.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.06 | +135.0% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Conservative (5%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Base Case (-31.7%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
| Bull Case (-43%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.28 | 4.72 | 2.66 | 17.00 | 6.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.16 | 1.79 | 0.51 | 24.52 | 11.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.81 | 9.12 | 0.99 | 171.99 | 83.02 |
| P/FFO | 3.79 | 3.79 | 1.98 | 5.59 | 1.56 |
| P/TBV | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 1.71 | 0.39 |
| P/AFFO | 4.46 | 4.03 | 2.26 | 7.52 | 2.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.78 | 0.61 | 1.43 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.65 | 5.74 | 1.27 | 12.04 | 3.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACTG's fair value at $12.06 vs the current price of $5.13, implying +135.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.61 (P10) to $19.91 (P90), with a median of $12.80.
ACTG's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 30.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -24.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.3x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover ACTG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ACTG trades at the 4500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACTG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (37.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5460.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.