MODEL VERDICT
Acme United Corporation (ACU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 19 analyst estimates | $41.90 | -5.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 19 industry peers | $44.56 | +0.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 16 industry peers | $61.79 | +39.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $24.78 | -43.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 19 industry peers | $59.08 | +33.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $22.36 | -49.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $32.35 | -26.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $76.58 | +73.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $71.87 | +62.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $61.69 | +39.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $24.78 | -43.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.97 | -0.5% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 |
| Conservative (6%) | $36 | $41 | $47 | $52 | $57 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $37 | $43 | $48 | $53 | $59 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $38 | $44 | $49 | $55 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.20 | 13.04 | 8.82 | 26.71 | 6.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.27 | 12.48 | 6.87 | 22.90 | 4.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.95 | 9.72 | 8.43 | 12.84 | 1.42 |
| P/FCF | 23.73 | 31.70 | 6.31 | 40.56 | 16.14 |
| P/FFO | 8.44 | 8.86 | 6.45 | 10.76 | 1.56 |
| P/TBV | 2.13 | 2.22 | 1.63 | 2.70 | 0.40 |
| P/AFFO | 13.69 | 11.29 | 8.62 | 24.94 | 5.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.42 | 1.47 | 0.96 | 1.73 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 0.82 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACU's fair value at $43.97 vs the current price of $44.19, implying -0.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.86 (P10) to $46.87 (P90), with a median of $41.33.
ACU's current P/E of 18.0x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -28.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
1 analysts cover ACU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ACU trades at the 1250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.