MODEL VERDICT
FONAR Corporation (FONR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 38 industry peers | $47.40 | +153.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 28 industry peers | $44.47 | +137.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 39 industry peers | $34.18 | +82.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $55.03 | +194.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 40 industry peers | $39.70 | +112.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $62.22 | +232.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $60.19 | +221.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 29 industry peers | $45.88 | +145.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 40 industry peers | $34.38 | +83.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.99 | +92.4% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $17 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
| Base Case (-6.8%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.85 | 9.92 | 6.33 | 15.09 | 3.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.46 | 5.33 | 4.61 | 8.98 | 1.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.96 | 4.47 | 3.82 | 6.74 | 1.17 |
| P/FCF | 10.22 | 9.08 | 7.08 | 16.33 | 3.39 |
| P/FFO | 7.58 | 7.06 | 6.47 | 9.54 | 1.30 |
| P/TBV | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.66 | 1.19 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 11.76 | 9.49 | 6.82 | 25.06 | 6.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.63 | 1.10 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.17 | 0.95 | 1.49 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates FONR's fair value at $35.99 vs the current price of $18.71, implying +92.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.67 (P10) to $39.69 (P90), with a median of $34.07.
FONR's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -57.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for FONR.
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FONR trades at the 1790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FONR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.