MODEL VERDICT
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $78.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $70.51 | Below threshold | +6.8% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $71.75 | Below threshold | +5.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 23 industry peers | $51.20 | -34.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 14 industry peers | $1.72 | -97.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $96.62 | +23.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 22 industry peers | $41.02 | -47.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 22 analyst estimates | $70.01 | -10.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 23 industry peers | $38.22 | -51.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 23 industry peers | $46.86 | -40.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.02 | -29.7% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $87 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $67 | $74 | $82 | $89 | $97 |
| Base Case (0.3%) | $64 | $71 | $78 | $85 | $92 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $64 | $71 | $78 | $85 | $93 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.68 | 38.76 | 36.36 | 40.69 | 1.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.30 | 35.24 | 33.01 | 37.74 | 2.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.12 | 19.65 | 18.21 | 22.21 | 1.74 |
| P/FCF | 18.58 | 16.61 | 15.34 | 24.40 | 3.74 |
| P/FFO | 18.44 | 18.36 | 15.84 | 20.77 | 1.84 |
| P/TBV | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.38 | 2.15 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.16 | 1.71 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.94 | 13.06 | 11.15 | 15.43 | 1.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADC's fair value at $55.02 vs the current price of $78.24, implying -29.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.73 (P10) to $63.99 (P90), with a median of $58.72.
ADC's current P/E of 44.2x compares to the industry median of 23.2x (22 peers in the group). This represents a +90.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover ADC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $81.06 (range: $75.00 — $84.50), implying +3.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ADC trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (38.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 660.0% to approximately $83. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.