MODEL VERDICT
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $79.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $78.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $66.09 | -13.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $59.15 | -22.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $62.25 | -18.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $94.28 | +23.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $52.15 | -31.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $51.68 | -32.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $57.36 | -24.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $57.15 | -25.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.26 | -9.3% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $67 | $72 | $78 | $83 | $88 |
| Conservative (5%) | $69 | $74 | $80 | $85 | $91 |
| Base Case (0.3%) | $66 | $71 | $76 | $82 | $87 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $66 | $71 | $76 | $82 | $87 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.68 | 38.76 | 36.36 | 40.69 | 1.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.00 | 34.49 | 33.01 | 37.74 | 2.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.06 | 19.65 | 18.21 | 22.21 | 1.80 |
| P/FCF | 18.58 | 16.61 | 15.34 | 24.40 | 3.74 |
| P/FFO | 18.20 | 17.58 | 15.84 | 20.77 | 1.96 |
| P/TBV | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.38 | 2.15 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.16 | 1.71 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.94 | 13.06 | 11.15 | 15.43 | 1.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADC's fair value at $69.26 vs the current price of $76.36, implying -9.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.15 (P10) to $73.14 (P90), with a median of $69.58.
ADC's current P/E of 43.1x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +46.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover ADC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $83.50 (range: $75.00 — $91.00), implying +9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ADC trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (38.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 280.0% to approximately $79. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.