MODEL VERDICT
Adeia Inc. (ADEA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $29.53 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $30.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $28.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $26.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $28.94 | -2.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $31.63 | +7.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $33.24 | +12.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $18.87 | -36.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $36.43 | +23.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $16.71 | -43.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $10.79 | -63.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $11.35 | -61.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $31.01 | +5.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $19.10 | -35.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.25 | -17.9% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Base Case (-10.8%) | $23 | $25 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $22 | $24 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.44 | 19.04 | 3.16 | 24.53 | 9.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.82 | 13.18 | 7.00 | 144.12 | 54.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.43 | 8.05 | 3.26 | 12.06 | 2.97 |
| P/FCF | 6.01 | 5.99 | 1.26 | 13.05 | 4.53 |
| P/FFO | 6.92 | 7.02 | 1.44 | 11.50 | 4.29 |
| P/AFFO | 7.44 | 8.30 | 1.48 | 11.66 | 4.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.36 | 3.38 | 0.32 | 4.05 | 1.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.36 | 2.32 | 0.52 | 4.39 | 1.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADEA's fair value at $24.25 vs the current price of $29.53, implying -17.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.94 (P10) to $33.40 (P90), with a median of $25.32.
ADEA's current P/E of 29.8x compares to the industry median of 33.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -11.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 4 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
5 analysts cover ADEA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.50 (range: $20.00 — $43.00), implying +16.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ADEA trades at the 4940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ADEA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.