MODEL VERDICT
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $74.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $69.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $67.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $66.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $69.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $50.67 | -32.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $35.23 | -53.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $22.69 | -69.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $121.64 | +62.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $20.43 | -72.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $118.01 | +57.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $115.59 | +54.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $124.57 | +66.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $22.67 | -69.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $121.55 | +62.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.95 | -21.3% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $64 | $71 | $77 | $84 | $91 |
| Conservative (5%) | $66 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Base Case (-6.7%) | $58 | $64 | $71 | $77 | $83 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $57 | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.00 | 14.11 | 11.23 | 25.78 | 5.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.29 | 13.39 | 9.59 | 18.86 | 3.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.16 | 12.01 | 9.26 | 14.14 | 1.67 |
| P/FCF | 14.28 | 13.20 | 6.62 | 24.21 | 7.86 |
| P/FFO | 10.12 | 10.33 | 8.47 | 12.32 | 1.35 |
| P/TBV | 2.08 | 1.96 | 1.59 | 2.89 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 16.88 | 15.09 | 12.84 | 27.52 | 5.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.50 | 1.41 | 1.11 | 2.12 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADM's fair value at $58.95 vs the current price of $74.94, implying -21.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.35 (P10) to $74.22 (P90), with a median of $65.53.
ADM's current P/E of 33.6x compares to the industry median of 10.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +230.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover ADM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $60.00 (range: $50.00 — $68.00), implying -19.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ADM trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 120.0% to approximately $74. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.