MODEL VERDICT
ADS-TEC Energy PLC (ADSE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $11.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $12.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $11.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.05 | $12.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $11.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $4.75 | -59.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $5.19 | -55.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.39 | -11.8% | 100% | 33 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 14.93 | 2.90 | 2.61 | 39.27 | 21.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.86 | 2.39 | 1.89 | 10.30 | 4.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.68 | 7.00 | 3.26 | 25.15 | 8.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADSE's fair value at $10.39 vs the current price of $11.77, implying -11.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 33/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.86 (P10) to $13.60 (P90), with a median of $8.23.
ADSE's current P/E of -11.3x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -139.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover ADSE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 33/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (14), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ADSE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.