MODEL VERDICT
ADT Inc. (ADT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $6.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $23.47 | +210.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $76.74 | +916.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $24.11 | +219.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $46.46 | +515.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $31.30 | +314.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $41.16 | +445.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $15.21 | +101.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $22.34 | +195.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $26.26 | +247.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $58.22 | +671.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.82 | +321.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $9 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.82 | 13.75 | 12.04 | 47.74 | 17.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 50.08 | 18.44 | 11.13 | 159.85 | 60.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.39 | 6.46 | 5.10 | 7.93 | 1.15 |
| P/FCF | 6.78 | 7.71 | 3.87 | 9.01 | 2.05 |
| P/FFO | 4.04 | 4.09 | 3.22 | 4.90 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 7.36 | 7.60 | 3.50 | 12.08 | 2.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.98 | 1.86 | 1.75 | 2.56 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.15 | 1.70 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADT's fair value at $31.82 vs the current price of $7.55, implying +321.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.19 (P10) to $40.28 (P90), with a median of $33.35.
ADT's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 36.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -68.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover ADT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.97 (range: $7.50 — $10.40), implying +18.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.1% is 12.1 percentage points above the 4-year average (13.5%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$16. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (13.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11550.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.