American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE)
Valuation Overview•Is American Financial Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 71/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though growth presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
AFGE exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($15.4B) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 30.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | +2.0% | +6.3% | +7.9% | +2.7% | |
| EBITDA | $0.00 | — | -44.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $191.0M | -5.1% | -2.1% | — | +9.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.29 | -4.6% | -1.4% | +4.2% | +9.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $474.0M | +37.2% | +9.4% | -8.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 35.5% | 82.1% | 89.8% | 95.3% |
| Operating Margin | 30.9% | 70.7% | 65.9% | 56.7% |
| Net Margin | 10.9% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 12.1% |
| FCF Margin | 19.6% | 18.4% | 19.5% | 24.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.52 | $2.29 | -9.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $3.27 | $3.65 | +11.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.52 | $2.69 | +6.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.10 | $2.14 | +1.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.07 | $1.81 | -12.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $3.10 | $3.12 | +0.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $2.47 | $2.31 | -6.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.47 | $2.56 | +3.6% |
Total return is +2.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -22.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -3.4% | -12.7% | — |
| 1Y | +2.8% | -22.2% | +6.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +2.2% | -17.4% | +18.6% |
| 5YCAGR | -4.7% | -17.1% | +20.5% |
| 10YCAGR | -1.8% | -15.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGE) valuation, health, and returns.
American Financial Group, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +632.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $116.69)
American Financial Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $116.69 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $160.53. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
American Financial Group, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 71/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9.
American Financial Group, Inc. pays a 45.6% dividend yield, covered by a 72% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 7.5% buyback yield.
American Financial Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +2.0% 1Y revenue growth and -4.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for American Financial Group, Inc. include: -65.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.77x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.