MODEL VERDICT
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (AIRO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.79 | CURRENT | -19.5% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $10.08 | Pending | -13.6% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.80 | Pending | -23.5% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $10.10 | Pending | -22.0% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.49 | Monitoring | -36.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 32 industry peers | $26.20 | +167.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 35 industry peers | $28.92 | +195.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 50 industry peers | $932.92 | +9429.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 50 industry peers | $954.03 | +9644.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 35 industry peers | $29.80 | +204.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $298.75 | +2951.6% | 100% | 45 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates AIRO's fair value at $298.75 vs the current price of $9.79, implying +2951.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 45/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $298.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $131.89 (P10) to $351.56 (P90), with a median of $239.54.
AIRO's current P/E of -6.3x compares to the industry median of 43.0x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -114.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover AIRO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.67 (range: $19.00 — $20.00), implying +100.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 45/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AIRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.