MODEL VERDICT
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $302.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $293.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $291.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $284.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $289.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $281.79 | -7.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $348.28 | +14.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $312.76 | +3.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $462.76 | +52.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $326.91 | +7.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $498.39 | +64.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $2306.84 | +661.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $385.12 | +27.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $361.58 | +19.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $314.95 | +3.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $429.93 | +41.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $414.13 | +36.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (30%) | $342 | $368 | $394 | $421 | $447 |
| Conservative (49%) | $391 | $421 | $451 | $481 | $511 |
| Base Case (74.8%) | $460 | $495 | $531 | $566 | $601 |
| Bull Case (101%) | $529 | $570 | $610 | $651 | $692 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.18 | 24.36 | 18.12 | 125.79 | 39.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.54 | 16.84 | 14.71 | 22.60 | 2.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.69 | 17.65 | 11.70 | 24.43 | 4.30 |
| P/FCF | 20.57 | 21.33 | 11.00 | 29.09 | 6.26 |
| P/FFO | 20.59 | 20.19 | 12.67 | 35.04 | 7.19 |
| P/TBV | 18.52 | 12.51 | 10.51 | 43.47 | 14.03 |
| P/AFFO | 23.23 | 21.93 | 13.96 | 45.62 | 10.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.39 | 4.33 | 2.91 | 5.57 | 0.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.29 | 0.75 | 2.18 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AIT's fair value at $414.13 vs the current price of $302.99, implying +36.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $414.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $295.60 (P10) to $378.03 (P90), with a median of $333.97.
AIT's current P/E of 29.9x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -3.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover AIT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $322.33 (range: $300.00 — $350.00), implying +6.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AIT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3410.0% to approximately $406. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.