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Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$237.45
→
Intrinsic$397.17
+67%
$269.05$397.17$640.46
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests AIZ could have 67% upside at 19% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $237, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 19%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $269 → Bull $640. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →15%17%19%21%
8%$484$525$569$616
10%$339$367$397$429
12%$259$280$302$326
14%$208$224$242$261

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($640) offers 170% upside at 22% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (19%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($269) with 15% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$902.25M
Year 2$1.07B
Year 3$1.27B
Year 4$1.51B
Year 5$1.79B
Terminal$26.34B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate18.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$760.20MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is AIZ stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

AIZ trades at $237.45 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $397.17, implying +69% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 18.7% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of AIZ's future cash flows. The bear case ($261.38) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is AIZ's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $760M, projected at 18.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $275M net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $261.38 | Base $397.17 | Bull $595.28. Current price $237.45 implies +69% to base case.

How is AIZ's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 18.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($21.16B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 27.8x.