Upside case
Bull case
$466+79.1%
AIZ would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
11 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering AIZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$286
+10.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$223 – $466
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.9B
AIZ price targets
Three scenarios for where AIZ stock could go
Current
~$260
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $260
Bear
$223
Base
$353
Bull
$466
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$353+36.0%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$223-14.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push AIZ down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Assurant, Inc.
AIZ · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Assurant is a specialty insurance company that provides protection products for mobile devices, consumer electronics, appliances, vehicles, and homes. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums from its two main segments—Global Lifestyle (~70% of revenue) covering mobile and consumer goods, and Global Housing (~30%) covering lender-placed and voluntary homeowners insurance. The company's competitive advantage lies in its embedded distribution partnerships with major retailers, wireless carriers, and financial institutions that provide a steady stream of customers.
Market Cap
$12.9B
Revenue TTM
$13.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.0B
Net Margin
7.6%
AIZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.56/$4.43
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.73/$4.39
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.61/$5.55
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.95/$5.29
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.56/$4.43 | +25.5% | $3.2B/$3.2B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.73/$4.39 | +30.5% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +1.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.61/$5.55 | +1.1% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.95/$5.29 | +12.5% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +3.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.9B
+5.9% YoY
FY2
$14.7B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$22.13
+11.1% YoY
FY2
$23.54
+6.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 11.4%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.16
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
AIZ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AIZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Lifestyle
77.4%
+6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+7.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Lifestyle is the largest disclosed segment at 77.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 7.5% YoY.
AIZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $259 — implies -0.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AIZ
14.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
39% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
AIZ
14.9x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
+10% premium
vs AIZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.9x
vs
5Y Average
16.5x
10% discount
Forward PE
12.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-34%
Financial Services
10.7x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-39%
Financial Services
13.6x
+10%
5Y Avg
16.5x
-10%
PEG Ratio
0.71x
S&P 500
1.66x
-57%
Financial Services
0.95x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-35%
Financial Services
11.4x
-13%
5Y Avg
10.6x
-6%
Price/FCF
8.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-61%
Financial Services
11.1x
-27%
5Y Avg
12.0x
-32%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-67%
Financial Services
2.3x
-57%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+18%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
S&P 500
1.91%
-33%
Financial Services
2.63%
-51%
5Y Avg
1.67%
-23%
| Metric | AIZ | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg AIZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.4x | 18.8x-34% | 10.7x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.9x | 24.4x-39% | 13.6x+10% | 16.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.71x | 1.66x-57% | 0.95x-26% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 15.2x-35% | 11.4x-13% | 10.6x |
| Price/FCF | 8.1x | 20.7x-61% | 11.1x-27% | 12.0x-32% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-67% | 2.3x-57% | 0.9x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.29% | 1.91% | 2.63% | 1.67% |
AIZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAIZ Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AIZ posts 7.6% net margin with 17.4% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$19.93
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
17.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$373M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
2.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$304M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
19.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
50M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAIZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Margin pressure and revenue contraction
Assurant is experiencing ongoing margin pressure, particularly in its Global Auto segment, which is projected to contract further. This could significantly impact overall revenue and profitability, especially as the home insurance business faces elevated catastrophe risks.
High Risk
Negative insider sentiment
There is currently negative insider sentiment for Assurant, highlighted by significant open-market selling by key executives. This trend raises concerns about the company's future performance and could lead to decreased investor confidence.
Medium
Overbought stock conditions
The stock is considered extremely overbought on the RSI14, indicating a potential selling opportunity. Although a recent upward trend might mitigate a major correction, the overbought status could lead to increased volatility.
Medium
Economic and market conditions
Broader economic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and political developments can significantly influence AIZ's stock price. These external conditions create uncertainty that may affect investor sentiment and stock performance.
Lower
Profitability concerns in home insurance
Assurant's home insurance segment has an average combined ratio of 89%, which raises concerns about profitability, particularly in light of potential catastrophe risks. While this is a lower severity risk, it still warrants attention as it could impact future earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AIZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Global Lifestyle Segment Growth
Assurant's Global Lifestyle segment has demonstrated impressive growth, with Connected Living revenue increasing by approximately 14% and EBITDA rising by around 21%. This strong performance underscores the segment's potential to drive future revenue and profitability.
Renters' Business Expansion
The company's renters' business has achieved double-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters, significantly enhanced by the acquisition of a substantial number of policies from a competitor. This consistent growth positions Assurant favorably in the expanding renters' insurance market.
Home Business Potential
Assurant's home business is characterized by greater underwriting leverage, which is expected to enhance premium-to-equity ratios. This leverage is anticipated to improve return-on-equity and return-on-tangible equity, contributing to overall profitability.
Strong Financial Performance
In 2025, Assurant reported a revenue of $12.81 billion, marking a 7.89% increase from the previous year, with earnings rising by 14.95%. The company has consistently delivered double-digit earnings and EPS growth for three consecutive years, reflecting its robust financial health.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts recommend buying Assurant stock, with many suggesting a 'Strong Buy.' This positive sentiment is supported by an average 12-month stock price target indicating an upside potential of over 8%.
Long-Term Returns
Assurant has demonstrated strong long-term total returns, achieving a 20-year average annual return of 10.04%. This historical performance highlights the company's ability to generate value for shareholders over time.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AIZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$259.86
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$183.39
+41.7% from the low
52-Week High
$265.66
-2.2% from the high
1 Month
+0.65%
3 Month
+22.52%
YTD
+9.3%
1 Year
+33.0%
3Y CAGR
+26.2%
5Y CAGR
+11.5%
10Y CAGR
+11.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AIZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.4x
vs 10.9x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.9%
vs +1.8% median
+219% above peer median
Net Margin
7.6%
vs 5.6% median
+35% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIZ AIZ Assurant, Inc. | $12.9B | 12.4x | +5.9% | 7.6% | Buy | +10.0% |
PRU PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. | $37.1B | 7.8x | -2.5% | 5.6% | Hold | -4.8% |
MET MET MetLife, Inc. | $55.8B | 8.6x | +5.5% | 4.7% | Buy | +10.2% |
AFL AFL Aflac Incorporated | $59.5B | 16.3x | -2.1% | 21.0% | Hold | -0.3% |
CNO CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. | $4.8B | 11.4x | +1.8% | 4.9% | Hold | -3.6% |
GL GL Globe Life Inc. | $13.4B | 10.9x | +4.5% | 19.4% | Hold | +2.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AIZ Dividend and Capital Return
AIZ returns capital mainly through $304M/year in buybacks (2.3% buyback yield), with a modest 1.29% dividend — combining for 3.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 22 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.3%
Dividend Yield
1.29%
Payout Ratio
19.3%
How AIZ Splits Its Return
Div 1.29%
Buyback 2.3%
Dividend 1.29%Buybacks 2.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.2%
5Y Div CAGR
5.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$304M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
50M
At 2.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.76 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.28 | +10.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% |
| 2024 | $2.96 | +5.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% |
| 2023 | $2.82 | +2.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% |
| 2022 | $2.74 | +3.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsAIZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $286, implying +10.0% from the current price of $260. The bear case scenario is $223 and the bull case is $466.
02What is the AIZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AIZ is $286 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+19.3% from today), and the low-end target is $246 (-5.3%). The base case model target is $353.
03Is Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
AIZ trades at 12.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AIZ in 2026 are: (1) Margin pressure and revenue contraction — Assurant is experiencing ongoing margin pressure, particularly in its Global Auto segment, which is projected to contract further. (2) Negative insider sentiment — There is currently negative insider sentiment for Assurant, highlighted by significant open-market selling by key executives. (3) Overbought stock conditions — The stock is considered extremely overbought on the RSI14, indicating a potential selling opportunity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Assurant, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AIZ will report consensus revenue of $13.9B (+5.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $22.13 (+11.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.7B in revenue.
06When does Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) report its next earnings?
Assurant, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $5.16 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, AIZ has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Assurant, Inc. generate?
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.4%. AIZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($304M TTM).