Aldeyra The (ALDX)
Valuation Overview•Is Aldeyra The Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 27/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
ALDX struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($55M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$5.8M | — | +17.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$5.5M | +39.4% | +18.3% | — | -10.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.09 | +40.4% | — | — | +8.8% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$4.6M | +22.8% | +16.2% | +2.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — |
| Net Margin | — | — | — | — |
| FCF Margin | — | — | — | — |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.13 | $-0.06 | +53.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.14 | $-0.11 | +21.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.17 | $-0.13 | +23.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.21 | $-0.16 | +23.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.25 | $-0.17 | +32.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.25 | $-0.27 | -8.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.25 | $-0.25 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.14 | $-0.28 | -100.0% |
Total return is -73.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -89.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -71.1% | -83.5% | — |
| 1Y | -73.6% | -89.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -39.7% | -60.1% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -30.6% | -41.3% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -15.7% | -28.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Aldeyra The (ALDX) valuation, health, and returns.
Aldeyra The valuation is being assessed using available models.
Aldeyra The has multiple valuation anchors: Wall Street Analyst Target: $9.67 (implying +616.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Aldeyra The displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 27/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -8.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -245.8%.
Aldeyra The does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Aldeyra The's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved N/A 1Y revenue growth and +40.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 19 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +616.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Aldeyra The include: -78.4% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.17x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.