Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$30.10
→
Intrinsic$3.16
-89%
$3.13$3.16$3.22
Current price reflects execution expectations above 20% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $3 → Bull $3. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $3).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 10% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 12% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| 14% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($3) with 24% growth, 9% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($3) implies 90% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 89% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($3) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$624,958.80
Year 2$749,950.56
Year 3$899,940.67
Year 4$1.08M
Year 5$1.30M
Terminal$19.07M
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$520,799.00TTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.