MODEL VERDICT
Alkermes plc (ALKS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $34.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $33.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $33.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $26.34 | -21.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $27.12 | -18.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $0.03 | -99.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $25.54 | -23.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $3.12 | -90.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $29.24 | -12.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $29.62 | -11.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $27.06 | -18.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $0.03 | -99.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.74 | -34.9% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Conservative (7%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.34 | 13.25 | 13.21 | 19.57 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.89 | 13.47 | 9.97 | 38.63 | 13.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.45 | 14.95 | 9.45 | 60.82 | 21.45 |
| P/FCF | 1844.11 | 51.50 | 12.00 | 9065.74 | 4037.11 |
| P/FFO | 40.90 | 14.93 | 10.93 | 122.81 | 54.68 |
| P/TBV | 3.79 | 3.81 | 2.72 | 4.64 | 0.60 |
| P/AFFO | 861.53 | 13.44 | 12.30 | 2558.86 | 1469.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.32 | 2.60 | 4.10 | 0.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.14 | 3.12 | 2.74 | 3.85 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALKS's fair value at $21.74 vs the current price of $33.38, implying -34.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.83 (P10) to $37.37 (P90), with a median of $28.88.
ALKS's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 19.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +23.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 3 years. Signal: Premium.
28 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.00 (range: $43.00 — $45.00), implying +31.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALKS trades at the 5110th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALKS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (2.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9110.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.