MODEL VERDICT
Alkermes plc (ALKS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $30.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $29.66 | Pending | +17.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $24.02 | -20.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $38.98 | +29.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $31.18 | +3.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $0.08 | -99.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $40.32 | +34.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $3.15 | -89.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $87.27 | +189.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $89.18 | +196.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $37.96 | +26.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $0.09 | -99.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.79 | -4.4% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.34 | 13.25 | 13.21 | 19.57 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.89 | 13.47 | 9.97 | 38.63 | 13.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.45 | 14.95 | 9.45 | 60.82 | 21.45 |
| P/FCF | 1844.11 | 51.50 | 12.00 | 9065.74 | 4037.11 |
| P/FFO | 40.90 | 14.93 | 10.93 | 122.81 | 54.68 |
| P/TBV | 3.79 | 3.81 | 2.72 | 4.64 | 0.60 |
| P/AFFO | 861.53 | 13.44 | 12.30 | 2558.86 | 1469.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.32 | 3.32 | 2.60 | 4.10 | 0.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.14 | 3.12 | 2.74 | 3.85 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALKS's fair value at $28.79 vs the current price of $30.10, implying -4.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.65 (P10) to $45.64 (P90), with a median of $36.41.
ALKS's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -3.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
28 analysts cover ALKS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $43.00 — $56.00), implying +52.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALKS trades at the 4790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ALKS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (2.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9020.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.