MODEL VERDICT
Aeluma, Inc. (ALMU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $24.41 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $25.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $19.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $16.63 | Below threshold | -35.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $3.13 | -87.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $3.01 | -87.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.86 | -35.0% | 100% | 38 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 15.97 | 9.02 | 4.40 | 41.46 | 17.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.94 | 9.02 | 4.39 | 41.33 | 17.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 107.19 | 102.42 | 48.47 | 170.69 | 61.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALMU's fair value at $15.86 vs the current price of $24.41, implying -35.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 38/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.61 (P10) to $16.77 (P90), with a median of $10.62.
ALMU's current P/E of -106.1x compares to the industry median of 45.5x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -333.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover ALMU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $25.00 — $25.00), implying +2.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 38/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALMU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.