MODEL VERDICT
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $372.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $375.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $354.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $329.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $301.18 | Below threshold | +9.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $359.35 | -3.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $292.81 | -21.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $383.43 | +3.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $346.18 | -7.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $475.22 | +27.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $341.43 | -8.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $241.70 | -35.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $267.10 | -28.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $273.72 | -26.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $409.03 | +9.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $358.55 | -3.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $321.21 | -13.7% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $342 | $370 | $398 | $426 | $453 |
| Conservative (11%) | $356 | $385 | $414 | $443 | $472 |
| Base Case (17.2%) | $376 | $406 | $436 | $467 | $497 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $395 | $427 | $459 | $491 | $523 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.37 | 21.34 | 13.09 | 29.68 | 5.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.47 | 17.20 | 11.40 | 21.69 | 3.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.35 | 16.75 | 10.84 | 24.64 | 4.20 |
| P/FCF | 23.64 | 20.56 | 18.03 | 36.44 | 7.14 |
| P/FFO | 19.96 | 18.80 | 12.25 | 29.21 | 5.19 |
| P/TBV | 11.96 | 11.45 | 9.03 | 16.69 | 2.41 |
| P/AFFO | 24.25 | 21.95 | 13.81 | 42.83 | 8.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.44 | 7.53 | 7.00 | 11.81 | 1.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.09 | 4.99 | 3.31 | 7.32 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMAT's fair value at $321.21 vs the current price of $372.30, implying -13.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $321.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $255.56 (P10) to $348.23 (P90), with a median of $301.15.
AMAT's current P/E of 43.0x compares to the industry median of 44.3x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -2.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
53 analysts cover AMAT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $420.83 (range: $290.00 — $470.00), implying +13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (41), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMAT trades at the 4890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMAT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4100.0% to approximately $220. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.