MODEL VERDICT
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $389.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $417.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $396.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $394.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $399.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $511.20 | +31.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $426.64 | +9.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $544.68 | +40.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $422.53 | +8.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $534.16 | +37.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $435.89 | +12.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $309.57 | -20.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $506.69 | +30.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $512.87 | +31.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $544.53 | +40.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $422.46 | +8.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $409.42 | +5.2% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $342 | $379 | $416 | $453 | $491 |
| Conservative (11%) | $356 | $395 | $433 | $472 | $510 |
| Base Case (17.2%) | $376 | $416 | $457 | $497 | $538 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $395 | $437 | $480 | $523 | $565 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.37 | 21.34 | 13.09 | 29.68 | 5.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.47 | 17.20 | 11.40 | 21.69 | 3.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.35 | 16.75 | 10.84 | 24.64 | 4.20 |
| P/FCF | 23.64 | 20.56 | 18.03 | 36.44 | 7.14 |
| P/FFO | 19.96 | 18.80 | 12.25 | 29.21 | 5.19 |
| P/TBV | 11.96 | 11.45 | 9.03 | 16.69 | 2.41 |
| P/AFFO | 24.25 | 21.95 | 13.81 | 42.83 | 8.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.44 | 7.53 | 7.00 | 11.81 | 1.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.09 | 4.99 | 3.31 | 7.32 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMAT's fair value at $409.42 vs the current price of $389.08, implying +5.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $409.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $370.40 (P10) to $421.75 (P90), with a median of $395.39.
AMAT's current P/E of 44.9x compares to the industry median of 62.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -28.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
53 analysts cover AMAT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $426.39 (range: $290.00 — $500.00), implying +9.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (41), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMAT trades at the 4040th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMAT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4360.0% to approximately $220. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.