MODEL VERDICT
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $291.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $287.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $294.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $301.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $285.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $173.69 | -40.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $224.07 | -23.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $27.85 | -90.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $0.88 | -99.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $173.20 | -40.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $348.60 | +19.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $239.78 | -17.6% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (47%) | $334 | $378 | $423 | $467 | $512 |
| Conservative (77%) | $400 | $454 | $507 | $561 | $614 |
| Base Case (117.6%) | $494 | $560 | $626 | $691 | $757 |
| Bull Case (159%) | $587 | $666 | $744 | $822 | $901 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.17 | 12.61 | 6.25 | 273.35 | 98.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.83 | 7.90 | 5.30 | 15.60 | 3.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.05 | 8.79 | 6.51 | 11.31 | 1.89 |
| P/FCF | 6.00 | 5.89 | 4.66 | 7.44 | 1.33 |
| P/FFO | 12.80 | 12.05 | 6.40 | 23.62 | 5.44 |
| P/TBV | 20.78 | 13.62 | 5.11 | 66.75 | 23.11 |
| P/AFFO | 13.20 | 12.12 | 6.46 | 24.94 | 5.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.29 | 0.97 | 1.68 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.75 | 3.06 | 1.91 | 3.33 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMG's fair value at $239.78 vs the current price of $291.07, implying -17.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $239.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.66 (P10) to $506.92 (P90), with a median of $249.58.
AMG's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 11.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +67.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover AMG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $331.50 (range: $282.00 — $408.00), implying +13.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14390.0% to approximately $710. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.