MODEL VERDICT
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMPH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $53.48 | +144.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $49.53 | +126.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $141.49 | +546.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $38.97 | +78.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $57.70 | +163.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $30.96 | +41.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $430.09 | +1865.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $35.60 | +62.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $47.49 | +117.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $85.17 | +289.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $37.21 | +70.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $221.51 | +912.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (54%) | $22 | $28 | $34 | $41 | $47 |
| Conservative (88%) | $27 | $34 | $42 | $49 | $57 |
| Base Case (134.5%) | $33 | $43 | $52 | $62 | $71 |
| Bull Case (182%) | $40 | $51 | $63 | $74 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 115.24 | 18.63 | 12.13 | 703.15 | 259.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.31 | 13.38 | 11.05 | 192.08 | 67.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.72 | 11.92 | 9.26 | 45.24 | 13.09 |
| P/FCF | 682.34 | 22.55 | 10.65 | 4650.75 | 1749.94 |
| P/FFO | 15.92 | 13.08 | 8.01 | 37.16 | 9.95 |
| P/TBV | 22.24 | 2.99 | 2.42 | 125.47 | 45.70 |
| P/AFFO | 18.75 | 17.15 | 10.21 | 33.77 | 8.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.75 | 2.60 | 1.64 | 5.13 | 1.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.99 | 2.82 | 1.79 | 5.09 | 1.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMPH's fair value at $221.51 vs the current price of $21.88, implying +912.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $221.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.95 (P10) to $603.32 (P90), with a median of $197.94.
AMPH's current P/E of 10.8x compares to the industry median of 69.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -84.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 115.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover AMPH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $22.00 — $30.00), implying +18.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMPH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 107490.0% to approximately $257. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.