MODEL VERDICT
Aon plc (AON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $311.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $321.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $331.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $328.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $312.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $310.40 | -0.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $117.80 | -62.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $275.33 | -11.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $205.95 | -33.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $310.40 | -0.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $199.59 | -35.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $224.32 | -28.0% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $344.59 | +10.6% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $253 | $289 | $325 | $361 | $397 |
| Conservative (10%) | $262 | $299 | $336 | $374 | $411 |
| Base Case (15.0%) | $274 | $313 | $352 | $391 | $431 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $287 | $328 | $369 | $410 | $450 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.90 | 25.00 | 20.73 | 54.16 | 11.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.56 | 21.05 | 19.41 | 34.55 | 5.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.83 | 19.06 | 17.28 | 32.22 | 5.24 |
| P/FCF | 24.82 | 23.74 | 18.64 | 33.23 | 5.85 |
| P/FFO | 24.34 | 22.43 | 16.39 | 42.98 | 8.57 |
| P/AFFO | 26.42 | 24.08 | 17.37 | 47.06 | 9.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 21.37 | 13.74 | 8.00 | 58.68 | 21.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.78 | 4.55 | 4.45 | 5.57 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates AON's fair value at $344.59 vs the current price of $311.51, implying +10.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $344.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $261.26 (P10) to $523.34 (P90), with a median of $373.46.
AON's current P/E of 18.3x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +0.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
38 analysts cover AON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $404.40 (range: $381.00 — $443.00), implying +29.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 21.5% is 4.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (17.2%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$407. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AON's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3050.0% to approximately $407. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.