MODEL VERDICT
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $37.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $36.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $69.22 | +84.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $21.83 | -41.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $43.58 | +16.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $107.21 | +185.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $68.50 | +82.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $40.22 | +7.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.01 | +54.5% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $29 | $37 | $45 | $54 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $30 | $38 | $47 | $55 |
| Base Case (3.6%) | $21 | $29 | $38 | $46 | $55 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $21 | $30 | $38 | $47 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.73 | 11.76 | 9.36 | 14.81 | 2.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.47 | 6.32 | 5.25 | 7.61 | 0.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.02 | 6.91 | 5.39 | 9.39 | 1.38 |
| P/FCF | 8.47 | 7.59 | 6.01 | 15.60 | 3.28 |
| P/FFO | 10.18 | 10.15 | 8.31 | 12.78 | 1.73 |
| P/TBV | 6.43 | 4.65 | 3.42 | 11.93 | 3.31 |
| P/AFFO | 10.63 | 10.56 | 8.45 | 12.96 | 1.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.43 | 4.65 | 3.42 | 11.93 | 3.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.32 | 1.87 | 3.11 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates APAM's fair value at $58.01 vs the current price of $37.55, implying +54.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.70 (P10) to $69.99 (P90), with a median of $58.84.
APAM's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 17.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -45.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover APAM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $37.00 — $43.00), implying +6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 24.3% is 3.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (20.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$41. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APAM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 850.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.