MODEL VERDICT
Aptiv PLC (APTV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $60.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $60.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $59.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $58.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $59.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $71.87 | +18.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $25.90 | -57.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $104.36 | +72.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $74.13 | +22.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $50.17 | -17.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $67.46 | +11.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $137.54 | +127.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $36.41 | -39.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $50.82 | -16.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $104.33 | +72.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $74.13 | +22.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $108.37 | +79.2% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $37 | $51 | $66 | $80 | $95 |
| Conservative (8%) | $38 | $53 | $68 | $83 | $98 |
| Base Case (12.6%) | $39 | $55 | $71 | $86 | $102 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $41 | $57 | $73 | $90 | $106 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.92 | 19.56 | 8.64 | 85.03 | 27.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.46 | 18.82 | 9.18 | 43.45 | 11.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.55 | 13.42 | 7.55 | 23.08 | 6.13 |
| P/FCF | 37.31 | 29.00 | 9.61 | 73.22 | 22.68 |
| P/FFO | 14.44 | 13.73 | 5.64 | 32.82 | 9.32 |
| P/TBV | 17.91 | 8.44 | 5.91 | 58.48 | 20.34 |
| P/AFFO | 26.84 | 18.20 | 8.08 | 59.49 | 20.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.82 | 4.35 | 1.71 | 6.09 | 1.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.70 | 1.44 | 0.79 | 2.86 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates APTV's fair value at $108.37 vs the current price of $60.49, implying +79.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $108.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.97 (P10) to $117.63 (P90), with a median of $94.62.
APTV's current P/E of 8.7x compares to the industry median of 15.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -42.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover APTV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.75 (range: $74.00 — $110.00), implying +56.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APTV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 414260.0% to approximately $2566. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.