MODEL VERDICT
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $41.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $47.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $48.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $47.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $42.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $128.15 | +209.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $105.53 | +155.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $21.36 | -48.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $63.97 | +54.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $57.68 | +39.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $103.20 | +149.3% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 88.82 | 56.28 | 38.16 | 234.76 | 74.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 54.87 | 47.97 | 41.61 | 92.19 | 19.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.95 | 20.61 | 14.70 | 138.67 | 44.79 |
| P/FCF | 16.78 | 15.74 | 5.90 | 26.59 | 8.21 |
| P/FFO | 17.36 | 17.03 | 11.00 | 23.61 | 4.31 |
| P/TBV | 1.21 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 1.79 | 0.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 1.04 | 0.44 | 1.79 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.22 | 9.14 | 2.81 | 15.59 | 4.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARE's fair value at $103.20 vs the current price of $41.39, implying +149.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $103.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.41 (P10) to $116.43 (P90), with a median of $71.06.
ARE's current P/E of -4.9x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -119.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 88.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover ARE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $55.00 (range: $43.00 — $67.00), implying +32.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.