MODEL VERDICT
Ares Management Corporation (ARES)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $119.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $115.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $117.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $119.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $100.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $54.45 | -54.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $80.26 | -32.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $75.34 | -36.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $332.32 | +179.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $54.45 | -54.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $95.39 | -19.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $103.72 | -12.9% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $105 | $116 | $127 | $138 | $149 |
| Conservative (9%) | $109 | $120 | $131 | $143 | $154 |
| Base Case (14.3%) | $114 | $125 | $137 | $149 | $161 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $119 | $131 | $143 | $156 | $168 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.88 | 54.08 | 33.67 | 85.52 | 19.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.26 | 20.02 | 16.75 | 24.43 | 3.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.63 | 37.41 | 28.12 | 73.58 | 14.89 |
| P/FFO | 31.43 | 28.03 | 19.96 | 56.34 | 12.43 |
| P/TBV | 6.00 | 7.48 | 1.40 | 10.16 | 3.42 |
| P/AFFO | 35.35 | 29.58 | 24.94 | 66.05 | 14.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.39 | 3.16 | 1.22 | 5.20 | 1.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.43 | 3.93 | 1.78 | 9.03 | 2.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARES's fair value at $103.72 vs the current price of $119.06, implying -12.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $103.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $88.88 (P10) to $125.96 (P90), with a median of $106.83.
ARES's current P/E of 57.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +118.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover ARES with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $177.38 (range: $148.00 — $215.00), implying +49.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.9% is 4.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$78. (2) Multiple compression: ARES trades at the 9280th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (56.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARES's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3450.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.