MODEL VERDICT
Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $9.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $10.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $11.07 | Below threshold | -3.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $10.67 | +29.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $11.27 | +36.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $10.55 | +27.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $7.77 | -5.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $8.16 | -1.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $7.47 | -9.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $31.57 | +282.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $13.30 | +61.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $12.17 | +47.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $10.98 | +33.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $7.59 | -8.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.65 | +53.3% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (19%) | $7 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Base Case (29.9%) | $8 | $9 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.98 | 19.18 | 9.95 | 49.07 | 15.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.42 | 18.93 | 8.68 | 51.49 | 17.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.38 | 9.96 | 6.72 | 30.40 | 10.22 |
| P/FCF | 32.62 | 26.88 | 18.45 | 62.45 | 17.58 |
| P/FFO | 15.10 | 9.15 | 7.14 | 40.29 | 14.12 |
| P/TBV | 10.12 | 5.04 | 3.89 | 30.86 | 11.65 |
| P/AFFO | 118.22 | 20.07 | 10.09 | 507.14 | 217.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.00 | 4.88 | 3.79 | 26.01 | 9.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.37 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 2.28 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARHS's fair value at $12.65 vs the current price of $8.25, implying +53.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.19 (P10) to $12.99 (P90), with a median of $11.02.
ARHS's current P/E of 17.2x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -21.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.0x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
14 analysts cover ARHS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.75 (range: $9.50 — $12.00), implying +30.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (20), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARHS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12450.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.