MODEL VERDICT
Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (HVT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $26.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $25.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $27.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $25.88 | Pending | +2.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $39.30 | +65.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $28.81 | +21.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $0.03 | -99.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $37.38 | +57.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $15.22 | -36.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $41.93 | +76.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $67.91 | +185.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $56.79 | +138.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $0.03 | -99.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $36.53 | +53.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $346.94 | +1357.1% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8399× | 9199× | 9999× (Current) | 10799× | 11599× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (-79.3%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (-107%) | $-1 | $-1 | $-1 | $-1 | $-1 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2790.77 | 10.57 | 5.71 | 19466.67 | 7353.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 3406.60 | 13.37 | 5.15 | 23769.46 | 8979.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 | 9.30 | 4.51 | 11.36 | 2.83 |
| P/FCF | 11.95 | 11.64 | 4.39 | 22.54 | 5.70 |
| P/FFO | 8.49 | 7.95 | 4.79 | 16.09 | 3.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.71 | 1.76 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 0.39 |
| P/AFFO | 28.11 | 15.88 | 6.54 | 92.02 | 30.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.76 | 1.21 | 2.21 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 72.72 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 505.55 | 190.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates HVT's fair value at $346.94 vs the current price of $23.81, implying +1357.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $346.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.26 (P10) to $972.04 (P90), with a median of $241.11.
HVT's current P/E of 9999.0x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +46829.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2790.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover HVT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $42.00 — $42.00), implying +76.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (20), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HVT trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2790.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HVT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3468440.0% to approximately $8282. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.