MODEL VERDICT
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $264.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $280.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $287.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $284.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $267.21 | Below threshold | +3.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $264.57 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $257.32 | -2.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $260.35 | -1.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $239.72 | -9.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $290.95 | +10.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $304.37 | +15.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $200.76 | -24.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $235.55 | -11.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $186.41 | -29.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $271.18 | +2.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $229.55 | -13.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $277.33 | +4.8% | 100% | 95 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $221 | $245 | $270 | $294 | $319 |
| Conservative (6%) | $226 | $251 | $276 | $301 | $326 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $232 | $258 | $284 | $310 | $336 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $239 | $265 | $292 | $319 | $345 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.14 | 20.35 | 16.86 | 21.81 | 1.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.50 | 16.48 | 14.53 | 18.33 | 1.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.66 | 12.57 | 10.70 | 14.73 | 1.62 |
| P/FCF | 20.50 | 18.60 | 13.00 | 33.13 | 6.26 |
| P/FFO | 15.13 | 15.22 | 13.47 | 16.67 | 1.08 |
| P/AFFO | 19.35 | 19.93 | 16.91 | 21.16 | 1.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.88 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOW's fair value at $277.33 vs the current price of $264.57, implying +4.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 95/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $277.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $237.49 (P10) to $289.96 (P90), with a median of $263.33.
LOW's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +1.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
51 analysts cover LOW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $289.77 (range: $230.00 — $325.00), implying +9.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 95/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (20), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LOW trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3000.0% to approximately $344. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.