MODEL VERDICT
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $233.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $244.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $251.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $243.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $244.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $260.18 | +11.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $282.21 | +20.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $241.06 | +3.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $312.39 | +33.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $281.97 | +20.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $342.97 | +47.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $292.09 | +25.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $293.75 | +25.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $272.65 | +16.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $241.76 | +3.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $307.49 | +31.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $285.06 | +22.2% | 100% | 100 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $196 | $221 | $245 | $270 | $294 |
| Conservative (6%) | $201 | $226 | $251 | $276 | $301 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $206 | $232 | $258 | $284 | $310 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $212 | $239 | $265 | $292 | $319 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.14 | 20.35 | 16.86 | 21.81 | 1.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.50 | 16.48 | 14.53 | 18.33 | 1.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.66 | 12.57 | 10.70 | 14.73 | 1.62 |
| P/FCF | 20.50 | 18.60 | 13.00 | 33.13 | 6.26 |
| P/FFO | 15.13 | 15.22 | 13.47 | 16.67 | 1.08 |
| P/AFFO | 19.35 | 19.93 | 16.91 | 21.16 | 1.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.88 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOW's fair value at $285.06 vs the current price of $233.33, implying +22.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $285.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $257.29 (P10) to $294.45 (P90), with a median of $275.66.
LOW's current P/E of 19.7x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
51 analysts cover LOW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $288.25 (range: $230.00 — $325.00), implying +23.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4740.0% to approximately $344. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.